Australia Business Forecast Q1 2007

Content

• Executive Summary
  • Howard Set For Fifth Term
• Chapter 1: Political Outlook
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Political Risk Ratings
  • Domestic Political Outlook
  • Australia's Opposition Politics
  • Australia's main opposition party, the left-of-centre Labor Party, has just voted in a new leader, Kevin Rudd,
  • who will attempt to breathe some life into opposition politics The chances of him reviving his party's prospects
  • of victory in 2007's elections are, however, limited
  • Table: Australian Cabinet Posts (As Of December 2006) 9
  • Foreign Policy
  • What Next For Australia And Fiji?
  • Australia looked on impassively in December as its neighbour Fiji suffered a bloodless coup at the hands of
  • its native military which then declared a state of emergency The odds of Australia changing tack, and getting
  • actively involved in Fiji's crisis, are minimal
• Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Economic Risk Ratings
  • Introduction
  • Economic Activity
  • Growth To Accelerate In 2007
  • Australia's economy will expand strongly in 2007 despite higher interest rates and a brush, in 2006, with rural
  • recession Exports will fuel growth, as will robust domestic demand and rising global trade
  • Table: Economic Activity - Historical Data And Forecasts 16
  • External Debt
  • Debt Burden To Rise
  • Australia's stock of foreign debt is worryingly high and, worse, it is likely to climb even higher during the next
  • five years It would be healthier economically for Australia if its foreign debts were smaller, but we believe
  • that at their current level Australia's external liabilities are, just, manageable
  • Fiscal Policy
  • The Fiscal Consequences Of A Commodity-Price Slump
  • Australia is healthy enough fiscally to withstand a gradual deflation of the world's commodity-price bubble
  • However, if the bubble deflates rapidly, the fiscal consequences will not be so benign
  • Table: Fiscal Policy, Historical Data & Forecasts (Fiscal Years) (AUDBN)
• Chapter 3: Special Report
  • BMI Sovereign Risk Ratings
  • What And Where Are The Risks?
  • Table: BMI Sovereign RIsk Ratings
  • Asia
  • Rising Political Risks A Constraint
  • Table: Asia Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Ability to Pay
  • Table: Asia Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Willingness to Pay
• Chapter 4: Business Environment
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Business Environment
  • Legal Framework
  • Labour Force
  • Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)
  • Table: Employment Indicators
  • Foreign Investment Policy
  • Table: Asia, Annual FDI Inflows
  • Table: Australia, Annual FDI Inflows
  • Foreign Trade Regime
  • Table: Value Of Exports By Category (us$mn)
  • Table: Top Export Destinations, US$mn
  • Tax Regime
• Chapter 5: Key Sectors
  • Food & Drink
  • Retail
  • Australia's mass grocery retail industry is set to witness sales growth of 559% to 2010, according to BMI
  • estimates BMI predicts that the convenience format will be the highest growth format by some distance to 2010,
  • with sales climbing 1628% to reach US$636bn Meanwhile, BMI is forecasting that food consumption in
  • Australia will continue to grow rapidly over the forecast period, reaching US$2943bn in 2010
  • Table: Food consumption indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts 42
  • Infrastructure
  • Industry Trends And Developments
  • BMI forecasts that Australian construction industry growth will trail real GDP growth, posting rates in the vicinity
  • of 3% per annum over the 2006-2010 forecast period Residential construction is likely to decline over the
  • medium term, while retail building is to ease as large projects reach completion On the other hand, the overall
  • value of work in the non-residential building construction industry is expected to rise
  • Table: Australia - Infrastructure & Macroeconomic Historic Data & Forecasts