Australia Infrastructure Report Q2 2009
| Publication Date | April 2009 |
|---|---|
| Publisher | Business Monitor |
| Product Type | Report |
| Pages | 77 |
| ISBN Number | not applicable |
| Product Code | BMI03744 |
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Summary
With the economic environment continuing to deteriorate at a severe rate, we have revised down our forecasts for the construction industry in Australia. Data released in Q109 shows that the Australian economy shrank in real terms at a rate of 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) during Q408, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. We now forecast that the country will endure a negative economic growth rate of -1.4% for 2009 as a whole. In this context, we estimate that the construction sector grew by just 0.4% in real terms during 2008 and we forecast that the sector will undergo a real contraction of -3.2% across 2009. We believe that the sector will continue to contract in 2010, at an annual rate of -1.1% in real terms, before a return to modest positive real sector growth in 2011. Given that our macroeconomic team forecasts that Australia's anticipated recession will be driven in large part by a plunge in private consumption, the outlook for private sector-generated construction activity in 2009 appears grim indeed.
However, the public sector should offer some support.
On balance, risks to our forecasts are slightly to the upside (at least for 2010). An end to the country's recession in early 2010 would likely enable the construction sector to record positive growth for the year as a whole. However, while it is certainly plausible that a recovery will be seen in 2010 rather than 2011, it appears unlikely that our 2009 forecast will prove to have been too pessimistic, given the current parlous state of demand in the global economy.
We have updated and extended our company analysis this quarter, looking at H208 results. Despite the global economic downturn, major Australian infrastructure companies appear to be holding up well, at least for now. WorleyParsons generated a net profit of AUD197.5mn (US$126.6mn) in the six months to the end of December 2008, a rise of 29.3% y-o-y in local currency terms. Leighton Holdings also remained profitable in the second half of the calendar year. Both companies can point to supportive factors that should mitigate the downturn, although it remains to be seen how they will cope with a protracted recession.
Content
- Executive Summary
- SWOT Analysis
- Australia Infrastructure SWOT
- Australia Political SWOT
- Australia Economic SWOT
- Australia Business Environment SWOT
- Market Overview
- Australia
- Global Overview
- Mega-Urban Regions: Opportunities And Challenges For Infrastructure
- Mega-Urban Regions: Investment Opportunities And Risks
- Major Infrastructure Developments And Key Projects
- Transport Infrastructure Overview
- New And Ongoing Projects
- Airports
- Ports
- Roads
- Rail
- Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Overview
- New And Ongoing Projects
- Power Plants
- Pipelines
- Water Projects
- Construction Overview
- New And Ongoing Projects
- Residential Construction
- Commercial Construction
- Industrial Construction
- Tourism Construction
- Major Projects
- Australia-Major Infrastructure Projects - Transport
- Business Environment
- Asia Pacific Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings
- Limits Of Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns
- Project Finance Ratings: Outlook For Asia Pacific
- Introducing BMI's Project Finance Ratings: Outlook For Asia Pacific
- Foreign Direct Investment
- Labour Force
- Legal Framework
- Tax Regime
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Political Outlook
- Company Monitor
- WorleyParsons
- Maunsell ANZA
- Leighton Holdings
- Country Snapshot: Australia Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- BMI Forecast Modelling
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Construction Industry
- Sources
- Business Environment Ratings
- Ratings Overview
- Project Finance Ratings Methodology
- Construction Risks
- Operating Risks - Commercial Construction
- Operating Risks - Energy and Utilities
- Operating Risks -Transport
- List of Tables
- Table: The World's 30 Largest Urban Agglomerations
- Table: The World's Richest Cities In 2020 By GDP
- Table: The World's Fastest-Growing Urban Areas
- Table: Australia Major Infrastructure Projects - Utilites
- Table: Australia Major Infrastructure Projects - Construction
- Table: Australia--Economic And Construction Data
- Table: Asia Pacific Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Design And Construction Rating
- Table: Commissioning And Operating Rating
- Table: Overall Project Finance Rating
- Table: Australia - Economic Activity
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators
Delivery Details
PDF:Immediate delivery
Product features / use
| Level | General Industry Strategies |  |
| Data | Detailed Market Forecasts | |
| Profiles | Profiles of Key Companies | |
| Features | Contains SWOT Analysis | |
| Extra Info | Consumer Trends Highlighted | |
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