Country Report Bangladesh

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Summary

The political scene will remain unsettled during the early part of 2008-09. The next general election is expected to be held in late 2008.
Despite the introduction of a range of electoral reforms, the next election battle will be fought between long-standing rivals, the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party—the two largest political parties.
To ensure that the elections are free, fair and transparent, the Election Commission will need to engage in a formal dialogue with the main political parties, which have refused to take part while their leaders remain in custody.
The main political parties are adamant that they will boycott the election unless their respective leaders are released from prison, where they have been held on corruption charges since last year.
The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the budget deficit in fiscal year 2007/08 (July-June) to rise to the equivalent of 5% of GDP, compared with the official target of 4.7%.
Real GDP is expected to grow by 5.7% in 2007/08 and by 6% in 2008/09.
Consumer price inflation is expected to average 8.6% in 2008, after averaging an estimated 9.1% in 2007.
The trade deficit is expected to swell to record levels in 2008-09 as demand for industrial raw materials strengthens and international oil prices stay high.

The military-backed caretaker government reiterated in May that it would stick to the electoral roadmap and hold a parliamentary poll by the third week of December 2008.
In May the caretaker government formally charged a former prime minister and head of the BNP, Khaleda Zia, with corruption.
Bangladesh Bank (the central bank), in early May, ordered commercial banks to reduce the spread between the interest rates on loans and deposits, and to review their service charges by June.
The caretaker government in early May banned the export of all but aromatic varieties of rice for a period of six months to help to ensure food security.
Food shortages, rising international prices for fuel and food have pushed up Bangladesh’s import bill, which rose to US$15.6bn in the first nine months of 2007/08.