Country Report Bangladesh January 2009

Outlook for 2009-10

• The Awami League (AL) is expected to serve a full term in office, having secured a huge parliamentary majority at the December 2008 general election. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) won just 29 seats.
• The likely monopolisation of parliament by the AL for the next few years raises the risk of large street protests, a tactic that has been used in the past to express opposition to the government.
• The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the budget deficit in fiscal year 2008/09 (July-June) to rise to the equivalent of 5.4% of GDP, compared with the official target of 5% in the 2008/09 budget.
• Real GDP is expected to grow by 3.9% in 2009/10, down from an estimated 5.5% in 2008/09.
• In line with the downward revisions made to our forecast for global commodity and non-commodity prices, we now expect consumer price inflation to average 5.7% in 2009, compared with 7.1% in our last report.
• The merchandise trade deficit will be substantial in 2009-10 as the external environment becomes more challenging.

Monthly review

• Democratic processes have resumed in Bangladesh, following the relatively peaceful parliamentary election that took place in December. The poll ended nearly two years of rule by a military-backed caretaker government.
• The AL won 230 out of 299 parliamentary seats in the election. The BNP initially challenged the outcome of the pool, but eventually conceded defeat.
• In January the AL leader, Sheikh Hasina Wajed, the new prime minister, unveiled her cabinet. It is much smaller than the BNP cabinet headed by Khaleda Zia until October 2006.
• The new government has declared alleviating poverty and reducing consumer prices to be its top priorities. Rising food prices are the biggest concern for the population, 40% of whom live below the poverty line.
• Bangladesh's trade deficit widened to US$1.4bn in July-September 2008 as the import bill for food and energy continued to rise.
• Inflows of remittances from Bangladeshis working overseas stood at US$4.5bn in the second half of 2008, representing an increase of 31.1% compared with the year-earlier period.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 37
NAICS Code: 336

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 37
NAICS Code: 336