Country Report Bangladesh October 2009

Outlook for 2010-11

• The ruling Awami League (AL) is expected to serve a full term after securing a big majority at the general election in December 2008. The main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party won just 29 of 300 seats in parliament.
• The likely monopolisation of parliament by the AL for the next few years raises the risk of large street protests, a tactic that has been used in the past to express opposition to the government.
• The government will post wide budget deficits in the forecast period as revenue expansion fails to keep pace with growth in spending.
• The Economist Intelligence Unit expects real GDP growth to slow to 5.6% in fiscal year 2009/10 (July-June), from 5.9% in the previous year. Growth is expected to rise to 5.8% in 2010/11.
• Consumer prices are expected to resume an upward trend in 2010, in line with increases in global commodity and non-commodity prices. Overall prices are forecast to average 6.6% in that year, before slowing to 4.7% in 2011.
• The merchandise trade deficit will widen in 2010-11, as higher global commodity prices (relative to those of 2009) significantly increase the size of the country's import bill.

Monthly review

• In October the government presented a new bill to parliament that would offer lifelong security to the prime minister, Sheikh Hasina Wajed, and her family. The bill has been prompted by ongoing threats against Sheikh Hasina.
• The government has chosen the mode of prosecution for those accused of taking part in the mutiny staged by members of a paramilitary force, the Bangladesh Rifles, in February.
• Tensions have risen along Bangladesh's south-eastern border with Myanmar after the Burmese authorities resumed construction of a border fence in early October.
• In September the government announced its intention to raise money from the capital market to finance new power plants. A committee has been established to look into ways to implement such a scheme.
• The value of merchandise exports (in US dollar terms) grew by just 0.7% year on year in August.
• Inflows of workers' remittances remained strong in September, rising by 12% year on year. Remittances totalled US$2.7bn in July-September.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 49
NAICS Code: 22

• Highlights
• Outlook for 2010-11: Domestic politics
• Outlook for 2010-11: International relations
• Outlook for 2010-11: Policy trends
• Outlook for 2010-11: Fiscal policy
• Outlook for 2010-11: Monetary policy
• Outlook for 2010-11: International assumptions
• Outlook for 2010-11: Economic growth
• Outlook for 2010-11: Inflation
• Outlook for 2010-11: Exchange rates
• Outlook for 2010-11: External sector
• Outlook for 2010-11: Forecast summary
• The political scene: Parliament continues, despite an opposition boycott
• The political scene: Moves are taken to protect a political dynasty
• The political scene: Preparations are made to prosecute alleged mutineers
• The political scene: Tensions with Myanmar increase
• Economic policy: The government plans to raise US$10bn for the energy sector
• Economic policy: A telecoms IPO boosts the nascent stockmarket
• Economic performance: Economic growth is uneven
• Economic performance: Exports stagnate in August
• Economic performance: Inflows of workers' remittances remain strong
• Economic performance: Consumer prices creep up in July
• Data and charts: Annual data and forecast
• Data and charts: Quarterly data
• Data and charts: Monthly data
• Data and charts: Annual trends charts
• Data and charts: Monthly trends charts
• Data and charts: Comparative economic indicators
• Basic data
• Political structure