China Silver Bullet

Publication Date	May 2008
Publisher	Business Monitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	40
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	BMI02382

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Summary

A year that has long expected to be China's coming out party is suddenly fraught with significant challenges. This special report analyses the building domestic political risks - ethnic turmoil and the soaring cost of living, which threaten to rain on China's Olympic parade.

Is Tibet The Tip Of The Iceberg?

The Olympic spotlight has helped to embolden Tibetan nationalists and international human rights activists, Western political leaders and celebrities to highlight and act upon simmering grievances with Beijing's policies toward the semi autonomous mountain region as well as Chinese economic and political activities in contentious countries. This poses two central risks to the ruling Chinese Communist Party. Firstly, unrest in Tibet and the threat of rising Islamist militancy in Xinjiang province directly challenges central government authority. A worst case scenario would see localised unrest spread to the wider Han Chinese population, with those benefiting least from China's stellar economic rise a potential flashpoint.

Secondly, activists, celebrities and Western leaders appear poised to continue criticisms of China's human rights record and dealings with verboten governments throughout the run-up to the Olympic Games. The withdrawal by Steven Spielberg from an advisory role in the opening ceremonies, and the disruption by protestors of the Olympic torch lighting ceremony have crystallised these fears. Continued pressure amid what was designed as China's 'coming out party' will deal a blow to national pride and the carefully crafted strategy to project the country's rise as peaceful and harmonious.

Content

Olympic Year, Olympian Challenges
- Is Tibet The Tip Of The Iceberg?
- Arresting An Inflationary Spiral
- Everythings Not Lost
Domestic Politics
- Unrest In The Periphery Could Spread Inward
- Tibet Unrest Aims To Demonise Beijing Ahead Of Olympics
- Main Risk Is That Violence Could Spread To Other Minorities
- Why Tibet And Xinjiang Matter
- Scale Of Unrest Raises Questions About Control
- Biggest Risk Is Broader Public Unrest
Foreign Policy
- Cross-Strait Improvement To Be Gradual
- High Expectations Likely To Be Tempered
- Chart: No Man Is An Island
- Taiwan - Overseas Investment (Us$Mn) 3-Mma
- Military Build-Up To Impair Political Relations
- Piece Agreement Within Reach
- Dpp To Lick Its Wounds With 2012 In Sight
- Xiamen To Benefit From Cross-Strait Thaw
- Factors Boosting Xiamens Position
- Potential Risks
- Chart: Waiting For The Breakthrough
- Xiamen And Its Environs
Economic Activity
- Gdp Data Highlights External/Domestic Trade Off
- Chart: Showing Signs Of Moderating
- Real Gdp (Change % Y-O-Y)
- Focus Still On Inflation
- Chart: Further Tightening Required
- Consumer Price Inflation (% Change Y-O-Y) & Producer Price Inflation (% Change Y-O-Y)
- What Does Slower Global Growth Mean For Exports?
- Chart: An Ominous Correlation?
- Baltic Dry Index And Shanghai Composite Index
- Table: China - Balance Of Payments
- Period 2003-2012, Exports (Us$Bn), Imports (Us$Bn), Trade Balance (Us$Bn), Current Account (Us$Bn),
- Current Account (% Of Gdp), Forex Reserves (- Gold, Us$Bn), Import Cover (Months G&S), Opec Basket (Us$/B, Ave)
- Demographics Point To Mounting Woes
- Ageing Society Could Limit Dynamism
- Middle Class Could Be Squeezed Out
- Gender Imbalance Could Create Instability
- Chart: Working Age Population Will Peak Soon
- China - Population Aged 15-64 (Medium Variant)
- Whither The One Child Policy?
- China As A Magnet For Immigrants?
- Chart: Current Structure Will Not Last
- China - Population Structure, 2005
- Chart: Too Few Babies These Days
- China - Total Fertility Rate (Medium Variant 1950-2050)
- Can Automation Provide A Solution?
- Is Financial Reform The Solution?
- Chart: A Grey Future Awaits
- China - Population Structure, 2050
- Conclusion: No Quick Solutions
Monetary Policy
- A Trap Of Their Own Making: What Next For Monetary Policy?
- Chart: Positive Carry A Tempting Prospect
- Spread Of One-Year Pboc Bill Yield Over One-Year Us$
- Hot Money: Is It A Problem?
- Bank Lending: Government Efforts Having Little Effect
- Core Inflation: What Is It Telling Us?
- Chart: Steadily Ticking Higher
- Non-Food Inflation, % Change Y-O-Y
- How To Curb Money Supply Growth?
- Chart: Government Warnings Go Unheeded
- New Loans, Cnybn (Lhs)
- Policymakers Face Constraints
- Chart: Few Signs Of Slowing
- Total Loan Growth (% Chg Y-O-Y)
Exchange Rate
- Will 9% Appreciation In 2008 Be Enough?
- Chart: Picking Up The Pace
- Exchange Rate, Cny/Us$
- Our Current Core Scenario
- Chart: Danger Of Tightening Too Far
- Inflation Scenarios (% Chg Y-O-Y)
- Revaluation Scenarios Revisited
- Chart: Little S-T Relief For Mounting Trade Surplus
- Trade Balance Scenarios (Us$Bn)
- Chart: Stability Remains Overriding Objective
- Growth Scenarios (% Chg Y-O-Y)
- Conclusion: Status Quo To Remain...For Now
- Greater Twd/Cny Convertibility On The Cards
- Chart: Unlocking The Door
- Taiwan - Exchange Rate, Twd/Cny
- The Kinmen And Matsu Conversion Windows
- Convertibility Beneficial To Cross-Strait Businesses
- What Next?
Business Environment
- Introduction
- Latest Developments
- Table: Bmi Business And Operational Risk Ratings
- Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, China, East Timor, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan,
- Laos, Malaysia, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South
- Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia, New Zealand, Global Ave, Regional Ave
- Institutions
- Legal Frameworks
- Property Rights
- Intellectual Property Rights
- Corruption
- Table: Bmi Legal Framework Ratings
- Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, China, East Timor, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan,
- Laos, Malaysia, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South
- Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia, New Zealand, Global Ave, Regional Ave
- Infrastructure
- Physical Infrastructure
- Labour Force
- Table: Asia Power Consumption
- Period 2007-2011, Consumption (Twh), China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan,
- Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Consumption Growth (% Y-O-Y), China,
- Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand
- Market Orientation
- Foreign Investment Policy
- Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)
- Period 2000-2030, Dependent Population (% Of Total), Dependent Population (Total), Active
- Population (% Of Total), Active Population (Total), Youth Population (% Of Total), Youth Population
- (Total), Pensionable Population (% Of Total), Pensionable Population (Total)
- Table: Labour Force Quality
- Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, China, East Timor, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan,
- Laos, Malaysia, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South
- Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia, New Zealand
- Foreign Trade Regime
- Table: Asia, Fdi Inflows
- Period 2005-2006), Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines,
- Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam
- Table: China, Annual Fdi Inflows
- Period 2000-2006, Inward Fdi (Us$Bn), -% Chnge Y-O-Y, -Fdi As % Of Gdp, -Fdi Per Capita (Us$)
- Table: Bmi Trade Ratings
- Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, China, East Timor, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan,
- Laos, Malaysia, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South
- Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia, New Zealand, Global Ave, Regional Ave
- Tax Regime
- Table: Top Export Destinations
- Period 2000-2004, Us, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Germany, Total Exports, Top 5 (% Of Total)
- Operational Risk
- Security Risk

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Scope	Expert Insight/Opinion
Level	General Industry Strategies
Data	Detailed Market Forecasts
Profiles	Profiles of Key Companies
Features	Contains SWOT Analysis
Extra Info	Consumer Trends Highlighted