India Business Forecast Q1 2007

Content

• Chapter 1: Political Outlook
  • BMI Core Scenario
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Political Risk Ratings
  • Domestic Political Outlook
  • Finding The Path To Reform
  • Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is struggling to push India along his desired path Resigned to resistance to
  • liberalising reforms, he is prioritising those he feels are most important and throwing himself fully behind them
  • He is also using SEZs to push localised reform, but even these are now coming under attack
  • Table: Indian Cabinet & Other Key Posts (October 2006)
  • Foreign Policy
  • Nuclear Deal In Jeopardy
  • The US Senate's decision to vote against a bill that would allow the transfer of US nuclear technology to India
  • has put the future of the nuclear deal, which promised to strengthen bilateral economic and diplomatic ties, in
  • doubt India's opposition to any amendment to the bill, along with the upcoming US congressional elections,
  • which may favour a more hawkish Democratic Party, mean a resolution may not be forthcoming
• Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
  • BMI Core Scenario
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Economic Risk Ratings
  • Introduction
  • Economic Activity
  • Momentum Maintained
  • India is maintaining the momentum of the past few years going into FY2006/07 While we expect a mild slowdown
  • as the effects of higher interest rates and inflation dampen domestic demand, India's economy should remain
  • largely resilient and grow by 83% for the year
  • Table: GDP And Population
  • Balance of Payments
  • Secure External Position
  • Although India's current account balance slipped dramatically into deficit this quarter, there is not yet cause f
  • or concern Lower oil prices will reduce the import bill going forward, while capital inflows should continue to
  • cover any current account shortfall
  • Monetary Policy
  • Rate Hike At Next Meeting
  • We anticipate an interest rate hike at the Reserve Bank of India's October 31 monetary policy meeting Inflation
  • has broken through 50%, credit and money supply growth are still above target and economic activity looks robust
  • That said, global oil prices have come off considerably since their August highs, which will help to ease price
  • pressures
  • Table: Prices & Interest Rates
• Chapter 3: Special Report
  • BMI Sovereign Risk Ratings
  • What And Where Are The Risks?
  • Table: BMI Sovereign RIsk Ratings
  • Asia
  • Rising Political Risks A Constraint
  • Table: Asia Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Ability to Pay
  • BMI Sovereign Ratings Index Methodology
  • Table: Asia Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Willingness to Pay
• Chapter 4: Business Environment
  • BMI Core Scenario
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
  • Legal Framework
  • Overview
  • Labour Force
  • Size
  • Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)
  • Table: Employment Indicators
  • Foreign Investment Policy
  • Overview
  • Table: India, Annual FDI Inflows
  • Table: Asia, Annual FDI Inflows
  • Table: Top Export Destinations, US$mn
  • Foreign Trade Regime
  • Overview
  • Table: Value of exports by category (us$mn)
  • Tax Regime
  • Overview
• Chapter 5: Key Sectors
  • Food & Drink
  • Retail
  • Table: Food And Drink Indicators
  • Information Technology
  • Market Overview
  • Table: India's Information Technology Sector Indicators