Country Report Myanmar January 2009

Outlook for 2009-10

• The State Peace and Development Council (SPDC, the ruling military junta) will focus on protecting its grip on power, and will continue its policy of using violence and intimidation to contain its opponents.
• There is little prospect that the junta will release Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the main opposition organisation, the National League for Democracy, ahead of the election planned for 2010.
• The UN will keep up its efforts to persuade the junta to implement genuine political reform, while the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) will take a slightly tougher approach in its dealings with the junta.
• There are concerns about the junta's ability to manage the major reconstruction effort required after Cyclone Nargis, which hit the country in May 2008. However, Myanmar is receiving support from both the UN and ASEAN.
• Official data may continue to show real GDP growth rising at an implausibly rapid pace, but the Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that growth will remain weak in 2009-10.
• Based on the official price series, inflation will ease in 2009-10 from the high reached in 2008, but it will remain in double digits.

Monthly review

• The SPDC has continued to hand out long jail terms to its political opponents. By mid-December the number of opposition supporters and activists given jail terms in recent months had risen to around 270.
• The UN has maintained its efforts to persuade the junta to engage in dialogue on political reform, and in recent weeks it has taken a tougher line.
• The SPDC is cultivating strong ties with China through regular exchanges between high-level officials.
• Central government tax revenue has continued to rise. In the first five months of fiscal year 2008/09 (April-March) tax revenue rose by 22.5% year on year to Kt300.2bn (US$56bn at the inflated official exchange rate).
• The government has expressed confidence that Myanmar will not be affected by the international financial crisis. However, there are indications that the economy may already be feeling the impact of weak global demand.
• Inflation has slowed steadily, but remains high. In August 2008 inflation stood at 26.8% year on year.
• Export revenue has continued to fall, eroding the merchandise trade surplus. Exports dropped by 12.3% year on year in January-August 2008.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 49;1;70
NAICS Code: 22;11;72

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 49;1;70
NAICS Code: 22;11;72