Country Report Myanmar March 2009

Outlook for 2009-10

• The State Peace and Development Council (SPDC, the ruling military junta) will focus on protecting its grip on power, and will continue its policy of using violence and intimidation to contain its opponents.
• There is little prospect that the junta will release Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the main opposition organisation, the National League for Democracy (NLD), ahead of the election that is planned for 2010.
• The UN will keep up its efforts to persuade the junta to implement genuine political reform, while the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) will take a slightly tougher approach in its dealings with the SPDC.
• The government remains focused on spending heavily on the military, with few (if any) initiatives in the pipeline to support households and businesses or to stimulate the economy in the face of the global economic downturn.
• Official data may continue to show real GDP expanding at an implausibly rapid pace, but the Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that growth will remain weak in 2009-10.
• Based on the official price series, inflation will fall in 2009-10 from the high reached in 2008, but it will remain in double digits.

Monthly review

• The UN has continued its efforts to bring about political reform in Myanmar with two high-profile visits to the country by UN envoys in the past month.
• In mid-February the junta announced that it would release more than 6,300 prisoners, 24 of whom are regarded as being political prisoners. The move is likely to have been aimed at deflecting international criticism.
• Supporting the view that the junta's recent amnesty does not indicate an easing of the SPDC's hardline stance, the junta has extended the house-arrest of a notable political prisoner, the vice-chairman of the NLD, Tin Oo.
• The Tripartite Core Group, formed by the UN, ASEAN and the junta in the wake of devastating May 2008 cyclone, has launched a new recovery plan for the affected delta region.
• Consumer price inflation eased down in October, in line with falling food prices. According to the latest data, the consumer price index rose by 25.1% year on year in October, down slightly from 26.2% in September.
• The merchandise trade surplus contracted in the first ten months of 2008 compared with the year-earlier period, as exports managed only slight growth, of 0.3% year on year, in January-October, while imports rose by 12.7%.

Source: Country Report