Country Report Myanmar March 2012
Market Research Report

Country Report Myanmar March 2012 Market Research Report

Outlook for 2012-16

• The government is expected to maintain a conciliatory stance towards its opponents, and particularly the iconic pro-democracy leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, who will be given more political space in which to operate.
• The number of opposition members of parliament is set to increase following the 48 by-elections that are due on April 1st, but parliamentary proceedings will continue to be dominated by former military personnel in 2012-16.
• The biggest test of the government's commitment to political reform will come in late 2015, when the next general election is due. It is unclear at this stage whether the government will invite international poll monitors.
• The government is likely to make sufficient progress on human rights issues, such as the release of all political prisoners and political reforms, for the EU and the US to lift sanctions in 2013, paving the way for greater capital inflows.
• The economy is forecast to expand by 4.8% a year on average in 2012-13. Growth will quicken to an average of 6.5% a year in 2014-16, driven by a jump in foreign investment following the expected lifting of sanctions in 2013.
• Annual inflation is expected to average 6.1% in 2012-16. Strengthening domestic demand, coupled with the inability of the Central Bank of Myanmar to rein in money supply growth, will keep inflation elevated.

Monthly review

• Myanmar's leading pro-democracy party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), has started to campaign ahead of the April by-elections.
• Initial indications are that the government is allowing the NLD to campaign relatively freely. Aung San Suu Kyi has been allowed to address groups of the party's supporters numbering in the thousands.
• In February the UN special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar visited the country and declared that the by-elections would be a "key test" of the government's commitment to deepening the reform process.
• Despite ongoing peace talks between the government and a number of ethnic groups, the situation in several parts of the country remains tense. Fighting broke out again in Shan state in mid-February.
• The government has revealed that it is drafting a new law on foreign investment. The details of the legislation have not been finalised, but it is expected to give generous tax breaks to investors.
• A rise in imports has eroded the merchandise trade surplus, which stood at Kt1.3bn (US$240m at the official exchange rate, or US$1.6m at the black-market rate) in April-October 2011, down from Kt9.9bn in the year-earlier period.

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 70
NAICS Code: 72

Please Note: Due to the Nature of This Report The Toc is Not Available