Country Report Myanmar October 2009

Outlook for 2010-11

• The State Peace and Development Council (SPDC, the ruling military junta) will continue to push ahead with its so-called road map to democracy, with the objective of legitimising its hold on power.
• Although the most likely scenario in 2010-11 is that the junta will remain in control, there could be a degree of volatility. There are underlying pressures that could build up and eventually prompt sporadic shows of public defiance.
• The junta will continue to face sanctions from a number of Western governments, but it remains unlikely that the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) will take punitive action against the junta.
• The government remains focused on spending heavily on the military, with few (if any) initiatives in the pipeline to support households and businesses or to stimulate the economy amid the global economic downturn.
• Myanmar's economy will be sluggish in 2010-11 after weakening in 2009 owing to a combination of domestic factors and the impact of the global recession.
• Consumer price inflation has slowed sharply this year in line with falling fuel and food prices, but it will pick up again in 2010-11.

Monthly review

• A court has agreed to hear an appeal against the conviction of the leader of the main opposition National League for Democracy, Aung San Suu Kyi, for breaking the terms of her house-arrest.
• The SPDC has continued with its efforts to take control of the country's border regions ahead of planned parliamentary elections in 2010. In late August the military attacked a small ethnic militia group in Kokang.
• The attacks on the Kokang ethnic group, members of which are predominately Han Chinese, was not welcomed by China, which sent troops and armed police to the border region to prevent further unrest.
• Growth in central government tax revenue (excluding customs duties) has slowed sharply, demonstrating weakness in the domestic economy (excluding oil and gas).
• Industrial production was fairly healthy in the first two months of fiscal year 2009/10 (April-March). Output of natural gas rose by 8.9% year on year in April-May, and crude oil output jumped by 12.4%.
• Although consumer prices rose on a month-on-month basis for the second successive month in May (following four months of successive declines), year-on-year inflation continued to ease.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 70;60
NAICS Code: 72;52