Country Report Myanmar September 2009

Outlook for 2009-10

• The State Peace and Development Council (SPDC, the ruling military junta) will continue to push ahead with its so-called road map to democracy, with the objective of legitimising its hold on power.
• The popular leader of the main opposition National League for Democracy (NLD), Aung San Suu Kyi, will not be permitted to play any direct role in an election that is planned for 2010.
• The junta will continue to face sanctions from a number of Western governments, but it remains unlikely that the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) will take punitive action against the junta.
• The government remains focused on spending heavily on the military, with few (if any) initiatives in the pipeline to support households and businesses or to stimulate the economy amid the global economic downturn.
• Official data may continue to show real GDP expanding at an implausibly rapid pace, but the Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that growth will be weak in 2009-10.
• Based on the official price series, in 2009-10 inflation will fall from the high rate that it reached in 2008, but it will remain close to double digits.

Monthly review

• In a widely expected outcome, Aung San Suu Kyi has been found guilty of breaking the terms of her detention order. She received a three-year prison term, commuted to a period of 18 months to be served under house arrest.
• The UN has responded to the sentencing of Aung San Suu Kyi by expressing "serious concern" in a press statement, but did not take any further action.
• Faced with the prospect of contesting an election next year that will not be free or fair, the main opposition groups have unified to try to push the junta to begin a reconciliation process.
• There has been increased contact between the US and the SPDC, amid a proclaimed review of US policy towards the junta by the new administration of Barack Obama.
• Central government tax revenue fell on a year-on-year basis in April, the first month of fiscal year 2009/10.
• Industrial production picked up in April. Output of natural gas, crude oil, paint, fertiliser, cement, paper and cotton yarn all rose on a year-on-year basis, reversing the downward trend recorded in the previous 12 months.
• In April consumer prices rose on a month-on-month basis for the first time in four months, although year-on-year inflation remained on a downward trend.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 22;10
NAICS Code: 313;212