Country Report South Africa June 2009
| Publication Date | June 2009 |
|---|---|
| Publisher | EIU |
| Product Type | Report |
| Pages | 28 |
| ISBN Number | not applicable |
| Product Code | EIU01757 |
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Summary
Outlook for 2009-10
- South Africa's new president, Jacob Zuma, will attempt to rebuild the "broad church" of the African National Congress (ANC) and will focus on jobs, health, education, crime and rural development.
- Mr Zuma will need his skills as a conciliator to balance the demands of his left-wing allies with those of the ANC centre, while also meeting the expectations of the electorate, in the midst of a sharp economic downturn.
- Given quickly declining business and consumer confidence, the government's fiscal stimulus package will have a limited effect and the economy is now forecast to contract by 2.2% in 2009, before recovering to 3.1% in 2010.
- The rand will continue to depreciate as a number of economic and political factors combine to undermine the currency, and is forecast to average R9.8:US$1 in 2009 and R10.5:US$1 in 2010. A rand crash is likely to be avoided.
- Inflation is forecast to subside to 6.6% in 2009 and 5.7% in 2010, helped by the introduction of a new, re-weighted price index and weaker commodity prices.
- With external trade retreating and foreign portfolio investors wary, the current-account deficit is expected to fall sharply, to 5.8% of GDP in 2009??
Content
- Highlights
- Outlook for 2009-10: Domestic politics
- Outlook for 2009-10: Risk of social unrest may rise
- Outlook for 2009-10: International relations
- Outlook for 2009-10: Policy trends
- Outlook for 2009-10: Medium-term policy
- Outlook for 2009-10: Fiscal policy
- Outlook for 2009-10: Monetary policy
- Outlook for 2009-10: International assumptions
- Outlook for 2009-10: Economic growth
- Outlook for 2009-10: Inflation
- Outlook for 2009-10: Exchange rates
- Outlook for 2009-10: External sector
- Outlook for 2009-10: Forecast summary
- The political scene: Mr Zuma's new cabinet includes all wings of the ANC
- The political scene: Mr Zuma gives his first major address to parliament
- Economic policy: ANC moderates retain control of several key economic posts
- Economic policy: COSATU puts pressure on the government
- Economic policy: SARB cuts interest rates for the fourth time in 2009
- Economic policy: The SARB governor questions the interest-rate spread
- Economic policy: The rand remains strong
- Economic policy: South Africa finds "willing buyers" for a new bond
- Economic policy: COSATU attempts to block the biggest FDI deal of the year
- Economic performance: The economy contracts sharply in the first quarter
- Economic performance: Manufacturing sector is still struggling
- Economic performance: MTN and Bharti make a fresh attempt to negotiate a merger
- Data and charts: Annual data and forecast
- Data and charts: Quarterly data
- Data and charts: Monthly data
- Data and charts: Annual trends charts
- Data and charts: Monthly trends charts
- Data and charts: Comparative economic indicators
- Basic data
- Political structure
Delivery Details
PDF:Immediate delivery
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