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South Korea Defence and Security Report Q4 2008

Publication Date November 2008
Publisher Business Monitor
Product Type Report
Pages 45
ISBN Number not applicable
Product Code BMI03059
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Summary

Tensions between North and South Korea continued to be significant in the quarter. In particular, North Korea fired three short-range missiles off its west coast in May, as part of its testing programme. The testing was part of a military training exercise involving Russian-designed Styx ship-to-ship missiles with a range of 46km. The missile launch, like the test-firing conducted on March 28 was part of normal military training aimed at testing the performance of the missiles and improving operational readiness.

The report of the missile testing came just after South and North Korean nuclear envoys met in Beijing in May for about an hour over attempts to end the North's nuclear program. The move to test the missiles raised the stakes in North Korea's nuclear dispute with South Korea and the United States, which are attempting to secure a full declaration of North Korea's atomic activities. North Korea reached a landmark six-party deal last year with the United States, China, Japan, Russia and South Korea. Under the deal, it agreed to disable nuclear plants at its key Yongbyon facility in exchange for aid and diplomatic recognition. As part of that agreement, Pyongyang was to hand over a full declaration of all its nuclear activities by December 31 last year. But disputes over the declaration have blocked the start of the final phase of the process - the permanent dismantling of the plants and the handover of all atomic material and it still remains unresolved. This issue continues to dominate relations between the US and Korea.

However, it would appear North Korea are unlikely to fulfil its obligations under the deal.

North Korea has also intensified its hostility towards Seoul since the inauguration in February of the new Lee Myung-bak administration, which has vowed to take a more hard-line stance towards the North than the previous liberal governments of Kim Dae-jung and Ro Mu-hyo'n. Calling the South Korean president a 'traitor', the North's chief delegate to inter-Korean military dialogue accused the Seoul government and Japanese civic organisations of scattering anti-communist leaflets throughout the North and warned of grave consequences. 'The Japanese reactionaries would be well advised not to forget even a moment that the army and people of the DPRK are closely following their daily escalating anti-DPRK moves and Japan's archipelago is within the range of a merciless strike by the revolutionary armed forces of the DPRK,' the North Korean said in a letter to his South Korean counterpart, in July.

Tensions between South Korea and Japan also heightened during the quarter, after North Korea responded to the latest territorial claims by Japan over a set of South Korean-controlled islets in the East Sea. North Korea's armed services and maritime police rallied near the islets in late July in a massive joint defence exercise. The joint exercise involved six naval ships, including a 3,000-ton destroyer armed with Harpoon and Sea Sparrow missiles, as well as two police ships and P-3C reconnaissance planes, according to the Navy. The exercise came after Tokyo earlier in the month decided to describe the South Korean islets - known as Dokdo - as Japanese territory in a handbook for middle school teachers. Japan has long claimed sovereignty over the islets, which have been historically controlled by Korea, but this is the first time Tokyo has asserted its territorial claim in school textbooks. Dokdo was annexed by Japan during the country's colonisation of Korea, which began in 1910. Korea regained its independence in 1945 and has since controlled the islets, permanently stationing militia and police forces since 1952. A number of legislators, including many from the ruling Grand National Party, have suggested permanently stationing armed forces on the largely uninhabited islets - two people reside on the main islet - following Japan's renewed territorial claim. The Defence Ministry has opposed the move, saying it could trigger an arms buildup in the area, if not an armed conflict between the two countries.

Content

  • Executive Summary
    • South Korea Security SWOT
    • South Korea Defence Industry SWOT
    • South Korea Political SWOT
    • South Korea Economic SWOT
    • South Korea Business Environment SWOT
  • Political Overview
    • Foreign Policy
  • Security Risk Analysis
    • BMI's Security Ratings
    • Table: Asia Pacific Security Ratings
    • Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
    • Regional Security: North And South-West Asia
    • Inter-State Conflicts
    • Internal Conflicts
    • South Korea's Security Risk
    • Conflict Risk
    • Terrorism Risk
    • Physical Safety Risk
    • Security Overview
    • Internal Security Situation
    • External Security Situation
  • Defence Industry
    • Armed Forces
    • Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2007 (including conscripted, 000)
    • International Deployments
    • Table: South Korea's Deployments
    • Weapons Of Mass Destruction
    • Market Structure
    • Arms Trade Overview
    • Industry Trends And Developments
    • Procurement Trends And Developments
  • Competitive Landscape
    • Table: South Korea's Defence Sector Key Players
  • Industry Forecast Scenario
    • Industry Future
    • Table: South Korea's Armed Forces, 2005-2012 (000 personnel)
    • Table: South Korea's Government Defence Expenditure, 2005-2012
    • Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
    • Macroeconomic Forecast
    • Table: South Korea Macroeconomic Activity, 2005-2012
  • Company Profiles
    • Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction
    • DSME
    • Korea Aerospace Industries
    • Samsung Thales
  • BMI Forecast Modelling
    • How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
  • Defence Industry
    • Sources

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