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Country Report Taiwan February 2009

Publication Date February 2009
Publisher EIU
Product Type Report
Pages 24
ISBN Number not applicable
Product Code EIU01240
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Summary

Outlook for 2009-10

  • The president, Ma Ying-jeou of the ruling Kuomintang (KMT), has a strong mandate to govern, as the KMT also has control of the Legislative Yuan (parliament).
  • In January family members of the previous president, Chen Shui-bian, admitted to money-laundering. This has undermined Mr Chen's suggestion that the corruption case against him is politically motivated.
  • Funding for a public works project worth NT$500bn (US$14.7bn) was approved by the government in mid-February. However, the deteriorating external outlook will significantly outweigh the positive impact of public spending.
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit has revised down its forecast for Taiwan's economy to a contraction of 6.5% (previously 3.5%) in 2009. This follows a downward revision to our expectations for global economic growth this year.
  • Weak domestic demand will ease capacity constraints in product markets, thus limiting the ability of companies to increase prices. This will be the main reason for a 1% fall in consumer prices in 2009.

Monthly review

  • The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which Mr Chen led during much of his time as president, has continued to suggest that the prosecution case against him is politically motivated.
  • Mr Ma is attempting to use the recent warming of relations with mainland China to further Taiwan's diplomatic aims internationally: he wants China to support Taiwan's bid to secure observer status at the World Health Assembly.
  • Concerns over rising unemployment have prompted the government to announce further fiscal measures to spur domestic demand and encourage economic growth.
  • Taiwan's merchandise exports plummeted by 44.1% year on year in January, to US$12.4bn. This was the sharpest percentage fall ever recorded, eclipsing the dramatic 41.9% year-on-year fall in December.
  • Taiwan's index of industrial production fell by 32.4% year on year in December. This was a record low and followed a 28.4% year-on-year drop in November.
  • Taiwan's traditional shopping spree ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday (which was in late January this year) went ahead as usual, although this time it was buoyed by the government's NT$86bn shopping voucher scheme.
  • The US government removed Taiwan from its "Special 301 Watch List" of intellectual property rights violators in January.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 60;49;10
NAICS Code: 52;22;212

Content

  • Highlights
  • Outlook for 2009-10: Domestic politics
  • Outlook for 2009-10: International relations
  • Outlook for 2009-10: Policy trends
  • Outlook for 2009-10: In focus
  • Outlook for 2009-10: Fiscal policy
  • Outlook for 2009-10: Monetary policy
  • Outlook for 2009-10: International assumptions
  • Outlook for 2009-10: Economic growth
  • Outlook for 2009-10: Inflation
  • Outlook for 2009-10: Exchange rates
  • Outlook for 2009-10: External sector
  • Outlook for 2009-10: Forecast summary
  • The political scene: Mr Chen's trial remains controversial
  • The political scene: The DPP is trying to use the media to further its agenda
  • The political scene: Mr Ma has continued to seek closer ties with China
  • Economic policy: Stimulus measures are aimed at containing unemployment
  • Economic policy: The government is trying to boost local industry
  • Economic performance: Trade activity contracted sharply in January
  • Economic performance: Industrial production slides to a new low
  • Economic performance: Consumer confidence remains weak
  • Economic performance: Taiwan has been removed from the US's "301 Watch List"
  • Data and charts: Annual data and forecast
  • Data and charts: Quarterly data
  • Data and charts: Monthly data
  • Data and charts: Annual trends charts
  • Data and charts: Monthly trends charts
  • Political structure

Industry Events