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Country Report Taiwan October 2009

Publication Date October 2009
Publisher EIU
Product Type Report
Pages 26
ISBN Number not applicable
Product Code EIU00680
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Summary

Outlook for 2010-11

  • The president, Ma Ying-jeou of the ruling Kuomintang, has a strong mandate to govern, as the party also controls the Legislative Yuan (parliament). However, support for the president has fallen in recent months.
  • The previous president, Chen Shui-bian, who was a member of the main opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) during his time in office, has been sent to prison. This is unlikely to do lasting damage to the DPP.
  • In the second half of 2010 the authorities will start to roll back the emergency economic policy measures introduced in late 2008 and 2009, although they will do so only cautiously.
  • On September 24th the Central Bank of China (Taiwan's central bank) left the discount rate unchanged. It is unlikely to raise policy rates until there are definite signs of a sustained economic recovery, probably around mid-2010.
  • Taiwan's economy will grow by an annual average of 4.1% in 2010-11, thanks partly to an improvement in the performance of the US and other OECD economies, which will support Taiwan's export sector.

Monthly review

  • The corruption trial of Mr Chen, Taiwan's president from 2000 to 2008, ended in September with his conviction and sentencing to life in prison. However, the behaviour of the judiciary in the case has been called into question.
  • Widespread criticism of the government's handling of relief efforts prompted the resignation of the prime minister, Liu Chao-shiuan, in September and a reshuffle of the cabinet.
  • Mr Ma is pressing forward with a bilateral trade agreement with mainland China, which he hopes to sign before the end of 2009. However, the speed with which he is seeking to close the deal has been criticized.
  • In September the cabinet approved a budget for rebuilding in the wake of Typhoon Morakot. The extra spending will add to an already large fiscal deficit.
  • Taiwan's Business Indicators index rose from 98.2 points in July to 100 points in August, reinforcing the impression that the island's economy is on the road to recovery.
  • The consumer price index rose by 1.8% month on month in August. There were sharp rises in the prices of fruit and vegetables in the wake of Typhoon Morakot.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 37
NAICS Code: 336

Content

  • Highlights
  • Outlook for 2010-11: Domestic politics
  • Outlook for 2010-11: International relations
  • Outlook for 2010-11: Policy trends
  • Outlook for 2010-11: Fiscal policy
  • Outlook for 2010-11: Monetary policy
  • Outlook for 2010-11: International assumptions
  • Outlook for 2010-11: Economic growth
  • Outlook for 2010-11: Inflation
  • Outlook for 2010-11: Exchange rates
  • Outlook for 2010-11: External sector
  • Outlook for 2010-11: Forecast summary
  • The political scene: The previous president is sentenced to life in prison
  • The political scene: Typhoon Morakot prompts the prime minister's resignation
  • The political scene: Mr Ma's administration hopes to bargain with China
  • Economic policy: The fiscal cost of the typhoon will be high
  • Economic policy: Tax receipts are down sharply
  • Economic performance: Signs of economic recovery appear
  • Economic performance: Inflationary pressures remain low
  • Economic performance: Losses by the high-speed rail service continue to mount
  • Data and charts: Annual data and forecast
  • Data and charts: Quarterly data
  • Data and charts: Monthly data
  • Data and charts: Annual trends charts
  • Data and charts: Monthly trends charts
  • Data and charts: Comparative economic indicators
  • Basic data
  • Political structure

Industry Events