Thailand Business Forecast Q1 2007

Content

• Chapter 1: Political Outlook
  • BMI Core Scenario
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Political Risk Ratings
  • Domestic Political Outlook
  • Peaceful Transition of Power
  • Thailand's military coup on September 19, which ousted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, brought
  • an end to five months of political uncertainty that has significantly constrained investment and consumption
  • for much of 2006 However, while the coup was largely peaceful, the fact that the military has again involved
  • itself in politics, after remaining on the sidelines for more than a decade, is a somewhat of a setback for
  • democracy
  • Table: Interim Thai Cabinet - Key Ministers (As Of October 2006)
• Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
  • BMI Core Scenario
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Economic Risk Ratings
  • Introduction
  • Economic Activity
  • Feeling The Political Drag
  • Thailand's economy continues to face strong headwinds, and the drawn-out political impasse has acted as
  • a significant constraint to domestic demand This will result in slower growth figures in H206 and through
  • to 2007 Positively, the economy remains supported by a robust external sector, and September's military
  • coup has paved the way for the swift implementation of reforms to boost the flagging economy
  • Table: GDP, Output and Population
  • Fiscal Policy
  • Budget To Provide Stimulus
  • After recording a THB552bn fiscal shortfall for FY05/06 (October-September), Thailand will post a second
  • consecutive budget deficit in FY06/07, as the new government primes the fiscal pump to compensate for
  • lacklustre domestic demand Given Thailand's relatively low external debt, which is equivalent to around
  • 20% of GDP, we do not believe that running moderate fiscal deficits will be problematic
  • Table: Consumer Price Index and Interest Rates
  • Monetary Policy
  • A Growing Case For Monetary Easing
  • With easing inflation and ongoing concerns over growth, following months of political uncertainty and
  • September's military coup, we expect the next move in Thai interest rates to be downwards
  • Balance of Payments
  • External Sector To Support Growth
  • Despite being in deficit for the majority of 2006, Thailand's trade balance is expected to improve on the
  • US$86bn deficit recorded in 2005, as export performance remains solid Given Thailand's lacklustre
  • domestic demand, which has been constrained by months of political uncertainty, the external sector will
  • remain an important driver of growth in 2007
  • Table: Balance Of Payments (US$BN)
• Chapter 3: Special Report
  • BMI Sovereign Risk Ratings
  • What And Where Are The Risks?
  • Table: BMI Sovereign RIsk Ratings
  • Asia
  • Rising Political Risks A Constraint
  • Table: Asia Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Ability to Pay
  • Table: Asia Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Willingness to Pay
• Chapter 4: Business Environment
  • BMI Core Scenario
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
  • Legal Framework
  • Labour Force
  • Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)
  • Table: Employment Indicators
  • Foreign Investment Policy
  • Table: Asia, Annual FDI Inflows
  • Table: Thailand, Annual FDI Inflows
  • Foreign Trade Regime
  • Table: Top Export Destinations, US$mn
  • Tax Regime
• Chapter 5: Key Sectors
  • Freight Transport
  • Table: Freight Carried (Domestic And International):
  • Table: Thailand Transport & Communications Sector Historical Data and Forecasts
  • Telecommunications
  • Table: Thailand Telecoms Sector - Mobile-Lines - Historical Data & Forecasts
  • Table: Thailand Telecoms Sector - Fixed Lines - Historical Data & Forecasts
  • Table: Thailand Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts