Thailand Defence & Security Report Q1 2008

BMI's newly-released Thailand Defence and Security Report Q1 2008 provides insight into Thailand's tenuous internal security situation and how this will impact on defence expenditure. The insurgency in the south continued to escalate in Q407, with attacks occurring almost on a daily basis. Targeted assassinations became the primary modus operandi for insurgents, combined with large-scale bomb attacks on critical infrastructure in 2007. The deterioration of the security situation in Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat and Songkhla in 2007 was in part due to the refinement of insurgent strategies and the security force's operational inertia. In Q407, the Thai government implemented a combination of increased cordon-and-search operations as well as development plans. The aim is to undercut the operational freedom of the insurgents by imposing more random checks, as well as improving economic development in the south. The lack of employment opportunities is believed to be a major factor in fostering the Thai Muslim community's ongoing discontent with the Thai government.

The current military-led government is keen to revive Thailand's armed forces, whose material capabilities stagnated somewhat under the former Thaksin government. The Surayud government is committed to boosting defence expenditure from 1.4% of GDP to 1.7% of GDP. It is likely that the majority of funding will go to boosting surveillance capabilities to control the violence in the south of Thailand. In Q407, the Thai government confirmed the allocation of US$240mn for the procurement of defence equipment from the Ukraine, China and Israel. The money will be accessed from the 2007-2008 defence budgets and will be allocated in installments. The funds were available due to budget underspends by the Thai armed forces. It is expected that the majority of the funds will be used to procure items to combat the escalating insurgency in southern Thailand.

Overall, Thailand faces some significant challenges ahead in dealing with the insurgency in the south, as well as ensuring that a democratically elected government can rule in Thailand. The current military-led government is keenly aware that its credibility rests on when elections are called. As such, it has tentatively scheduled elections for December 2007. In the immediate term, the public will support the new government, which will make the task slightly easier. There is more unease amongst the international community at Thailand's actions, and they will be watching closely to see who is elected into government.