Thailand Infrastructure Report Q2 2009

Publication Date	April 2009
Publisher	Business Monitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	73
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	BMI03653

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Summary

New data from the statistics agency in Thailand show a worse than anticipated fall in construction industry real growth by 12.8% for the fourth quarter of 2008. We have revised our data downwards. Real construction sector growth in 2008 was -4.7% and is forecast to remain in negative territory for 2009 at 4.3%. However, while obviously far from upbeat, our new forecast for 2009 as a whole is clearly more favourable than the severe plunge in real sector output experienced in Q408. Several factors should lend support. The authorities are boosting infrastructure investment. A programme worth THB1.9trn over a period of up to four years will concentrate squarely on infrastructure projects that can be put into action as quickly as possible. Risks to our forecasts are both to the upside and the downside for 2009 and 2010.

The main upside risk (especially for 2010) includes a more rapid-than-expected recovery of the global economy, which would boost Thailand's economy at a time when additional state-driven infrastructure spending will be kicking in with full effect. Downside risks for construction activity include the Thai government being unable to deliver on promised spending programmes and a continuation of a severe recession in key export markets (particularly the US) throughout 2010.

We re-evaluate the prospects for Siam Cement and Italian Thai Development Company in the wake of their 2008 results. Losses are beginning to bite - the former generated a loss in Q408, while the latter registered a net loss of THB2.7bn (US$75mn) for 2008 as a whole. We analyse each company's ability to cope with what will likely be an extended downturn, even in a context of higher government infrastructure investment.

The pace of the proposed construction of a 5,000km rail route by the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) is slowing due to high infrastructure costs, according to Bernama news agency (February 2009). The cost of the project was originally anticipated to stand at around US$23bn, but associated infrastructure costs have since risen.

Content

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Thailand Infrastructure Industry SWOT
Thailand Political SWOT
Thailand Economic SWOT
Thailand Business Environment SWOT
Market Overview
Thailand
Global
Mega-Urban Regions: Opportunities And Challenges For Infrastructure
Mega-Urban Regions: Investment Opportunities And Risks
Major Infrastructure Developments And Key Projects
Transport Infrastructure Overview
New And Ongoing Projects
Airports
Ports
Road Networks
Rail Networks
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Overview
Power Generation
Power Consumption
Power Transmission
New And Ongoing Projects
Power Plants And Transmission Grids
Pipelines
Construction Overview
New And Ongoing Projects
Residential Construction
Commercial Construction
Industrial Construction
Tourism Construction
Major Infrastructure Projects
Industry Forecast Scenario
Risks
Business Environment
Asia Pacific Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings
Limits Of Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Project Finance Ratings: Outlook For Asia Pacific
Foreign Direct Investment
Labour Force
Legal Framework
Tax Regime
Macroeconomic Outlook
Company Monitor
Siam Cement
Italian-Thai Development Public Company
Country Snapshot: Thailand Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Construction Industry
Sources
Business Environment
Ratings Overview
Project Finance Ratings Methodology
Construction Risks
Operating Risks - Commercial Construction
Operating Risks - Energy and Utilities
List of Tables
- Table: The World's 30 Largest Urban Agglomerations
- Table: The World's Richest Cities In 2020 By GDP
- Table: The World's Fastest-Growing Urban Areas
- Table: Thailand Major Infrastructure Projects - Transport
- Table: Thailand Major Infrastructure Projects - Utilties
- Table: Thailand Major Infrastructure Projects - Construction
- Table: Economic And Construction Data
- Table: Asia Pacific Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Design And Construction Rating
- Table: Commissioning And Operating Rating
- Table: Overall Project Finance Rating
- Table: Thailand - Economic Activity
- Table: Key Players
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Non-Agricultural Wages, 2001-20
- Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators