Thailand Infrastructure Report Q3 2009

Publication Date	July 2009
Publisher	Business Monitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	78
ISBN Number	1750-5526
Product Code	BMI02320

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Summary

We estimate that real construction sector growth in 2008 was -4.7%. The performance of the construction sector in 2009 is likely to be even worse. The Thai economy contracted by 7.1% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2009 and we foresee the economy shrinking by 4.5% in real terms across 2009 as a whole. In this context, we now forecast that Thailand's construction sector will shrink by 7.0% in real terms across 2009 as a whole. This marks a revision of our forecasts from last quarter, when we were predicting that the construction sector would contract by 4.3% in 2009. However, we anticipate that the construction sector - and the economy as a whole - will resume (albeit modest) positive growth from 2010, with the sector experiencing real growth of 1.1% in 2010 and 1.9% in 2011.

Thailand ranks in lower mid-table regionally for our Project Finance Ratings. The country is placed ninth out of 14 countries, a slip from eighth place since our previous update. Although the country scores moderately well for the Design and Construction variable, it is let down by its score for Commissioning and Operating. In particular, the country is let down by the Outputs variable in the transport, utilities and commercial construction sectors.

In this quarter's report, we introduce an evaluation of CH Karnchang, Thailand's second largest construction company. The company is in a strong position, despite the global economic downturn. It maintains a solid pipeline of work, both in Thailand and the wider Asia region, boding well for continued strong net profits in 2009. Solid revenue and profits should enable CH Karnchang to continue servicing its moderate levels of debt reasonably comfortably, assuming that the global economic downturn abates before the end of 2010.

The Thai government is planning to start a light rail service in Phuket, according to Phuket Wan in April 2009. The plan was discussed in a meeting between the governor, the private firm making the proposal, and leaders from the tourism industry. The approval is yet to be given for the project. It has been reported that the complete network is expected to cost as high as THB52bn (US$1.6bn). The route is expected to be 41.4km long. Initial funding to cover the cost of the project would be obtained through private investment, with the return expected from tariffs on the routes.

Content

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Thailand Infrastructure Industry SWOT
Thailand Political SWOT
Thailand Economic SWOT
Thailand Business Environment SWOT
Market Overview
Thailand
Global Overview
Governments to The Rescue: The Global Surge in Infrastructure Spending
Major Infrastructure Developments and Key Projects
Transport Infrastructure Overview
New and Ongoing Projects
Airports
Ports
Road Networks
Rail Networks
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Overview
Power Generation
Power Consumption
Power Transmission
New and Ongoing Projects
Power Plants and Transmission Grids
Pipelines
Construction Overview
New and Ongoing Projects
Residential Construction
Commercial Construction
Industrial Construction
Tourism Construction
Industry Forecast Scenario
Risks
Business Environment
Asia Pacific Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings
Limits of Potential Returns
Risks to Realisation of Returns
Project Finance Ratings: Outlook for Asia Pacific
Foreign Direct Investment
Labour Force
Legal Framework
Tax Regime
Macroeconomic Outlook
Company Monitor
CH Karnchang
Siam Cement
Italian-Thai Development Public Company
Country Snapshot: Thailand Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Section 2: Education and Healthcare
Section 3: Labour Market and Spending Power
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Construction Industry
Sources
Business Environment Ratings
Ratings Overview
Project Finance Ratings Methodology
Design & Construction Phase
Historical Data & Forecasts
Commissioning and Operating Phase - Commercial Construction
Commissioning and Operating Phase - Energy and Utilities
Commissioning and Operating Phase - Transport
List of Tables
- Table: Infrastructure Stimulus Plans List
- Table: Thailand Major Infrastructure Projects - Transport
- Table: Thailand Major Infrastructure Projects - Utilities
- Table: Thailand Major Infrastructure Projects - Construction
- Table: Economic and Construction Data
- Table: Regional Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Design and Construction Rating
- Table: Commissioning and Operating Rating
- Table: Overall Project Finance Rating
- Table: Thailand - Economic Activity
- Table: Key Players
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Non-Agricultural Wages, 2001-2012
- Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators