Country Report Vietnam June 2009
| Publication Date | June 2009 |
|---|---|
| Publisher | EIU |
| Product Type | Report |
| Pages | 25 |
| ISBN Number | not applicable |
| Product Code | EIU01784 |
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Summary
Outlook for 2009-10
- The political landscape is unlikely to change dramatically in 2009-10, with the ruling Communist Party of Vietnam almost guaranteed to maintain its firm grip on power.
- The government's fiscal stimulus, estimated to be worth under US$4bn by the IMF, will be directed at a raft of infrastructure projects as well as other measures that will help to boost growth.
- In addition to fiscal loosening, the State Bank of Vietnam (the central bank) will maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance in order to support the economy.
- The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that the economy will grow by 2.1% this year, before the rate of growth increases in 2010, to 4.9%.
- As domestic demand growth weakens, we expect price rises to abate and inflation to slow to an average of 6% in 2009. It will stay relatively low in 2010 as external supply-side pressures remain weak.
- The value of the dong against the US dollar will fall by around 8% in nominal terms in 2009, and will decline further, although at a slower pace, in 2010.
- The current-account deficit will narrow in 2009-10 as a result of a reduction in the merchandise trade deficit.
Monthly review
- The controversy surrounding a number of proposed large bauxite mines rumbled on in May. Major concerns have arisen over the inv0lvement of Chinese firms in the projects.
- A number of delegates in the National Assembly (the legislature) have called for greater clarity on the scope of the government's fiscal stimulus package and improved targeting of its intended beneficiaries.
- The Ministry of Planning and Investment is believed to be seeking government approval to open up several service sectors to foreign investors.
- Stockmarket investors appear to be pricing in an economic recovery, with the VN index (an index of all stocks on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange) rising from a low of just 235.5 on February 24th to 458.2 on June 4th.
- Industrial output in the first five months of 2009 grew by 3.9% year on year, a markedly slower rate than the 14-15% annual growth in industrial production that Vietnam has become used to in recent years.
- The trade deficit for the first five months of 2009 totalled US$1.2bn. This is in spite of the massive 37% fall in the value of imports, which totalled just US$23.9bn in the period.
Source: Country Report
This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 60;82
NAICS Code: 52;61
Content
- Highlights
- Outlook for 2009-10: Domestic politics
- Outlook for 2009-10: International relations
- Outlook for 2009-10: Policy trends
- Outlook for 2009-10: Fiscal policy
- Outlook for 2009-10: Monetary policy
- Outlook for 2009-10: International assumptions
- Outlook for 2009-10: Economic growth
- Outlook for 2009-10: Inflation
- Outlook for 2009-10: Exchange rates
- Outlook for 2009-10: External sector
- Outlook for 2009-10: Forecast summary
- The political scene: Proposed bauxite mines stir up controversy
- The political scene: Graduates may struggle to obtain employment
- The political scene: The National Assembly may revise the Investment Law
- Economic policy: The National Assembly will review the budget
- Economic policy: The government may accelerate crucial reforms
- Economic performance: Firms are struggling through the downturn
- Economic performance: Trade and investment flows fall dramatically
- Economic performance: Education is a major concern for business
- Data and charts: Annual data and forecast
- Data and charts: Quarterly data
- Data and charts: Monthly data
- Data and charts: Annual trends charts
- Data and charts: Monthly trends charts
- Data and charts: Comparative economic indicators
- Basic data
- Political structure
Delivery Details
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