Country Report Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States December 2008

Publication Date	December 2008
Publisher	EIU
Product Type	Report
Pages	30
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	EIU00887

Buy this product or for assistance call +44 20 7060 7474

PDF £160.00$266 | €179

FAX Order above formats by FAX

Summary

Outlook for 2009-10

Elections are expected before the end of 2009 in several Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) member states. A general election in Antigua-Barbuda is due by June 2009, but may be called earlier, with the ruling United Progressive Party (UPP) widely favoured to maintain power. Elections in StKitts-Nevis, Dominica and Anguilla are due by mid-2010, but may also be held sooner. Ambitious targets for further economic and political integration within the OECS are under discussion, but finding the unity and political will to carry the process forward will be difficult. Economic performance across the region will deteriorate in 2009 as a result of recessions in the US and UK, which will constrain tourism demand, and a global shortage of liquidity to finance investment projects that will dampen growth in construction. In those countries that do not rely heavily on tourism, such as St Vincent and the Grenadines and Dominica, growth will be held back by the uncertain future of the banana industry, particularly following crop damage from Hurricane Dean in mid-2007. Prospects for agriculture remain poor unless a regional scheme to support banana producers is agreed. Manufacturing will face greater competition, following the OECS decision to join the Caribbean Single Market and Economy (CSME) in2006.

Summary

Discussions are under way on proposals put forward by Trinidad and Tobago (with the backing of Grenada, Saint Lucia and St Vincent and the Grenadines) in August for an economic union by 2011 and a political union by 2013. Falling consumer demand in North America and Europe has begun to impact negatively on tourist arrivals. Adjustments to the routes and timetables of several major airlines are adding to the uncertainty surrounding the performance of OECS tourism sectors in 2009. Violent crime and drug-trafficking remain serious concerns throughout the eastern Caribbean and the murder rate in most OECS countries has continued to rise at an alarming rate.

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 70;49;15;10;60
NAICS Code: 72;22;23;11;212;52

Content

Summary
Anguilla: political and economic structure
Anguilla: political and economic structure: Annual indicators
Antigua and Barbuda: political and economic structure
Antigua and Barbuda: political and economic structure: Annual indicators
Dominica: political and economic structure
Dominica: political and economic structure: Annual indicators
Grenada: political and economic structure
Grenada: political and economic structure: Annual indicators
Montserrat: political and economic structure
Montserrat: political and economic structure: Annual indicators
St Kitts-Nevis: political and economic structure
St Kitts-Nevis: political and economic structure: Annual indicators
Saint Lucia: political and economic structure
Saint Lucia: political and economic structure: Annual indicators
St Vincent and the Grenadines: political and economic structure
St Vincent and the Grenadines: political and economic structure: Annual indicators
Outlook for 2009-10
Outlook for 2009-10: Crime could damage the economy if unchecked
Outlook for 2009-10: High debt levels will remain a worry
Outlook for 2009-10: Global economic slowdown will hurt OECS growth
Outlook for 2009-10: The OECS will remain vulnerable to natural disasters
Review: Discussions on expanded integration continue
Review: Tourist arrivals beginning to slip as demand cools
Review: New flight schedules announced
Review: Murder rates continue to climb
Review: Tourism-related investment set to fall in 2009
Review: Elections may be called early
Review: Contract dispute results in power outages
Review: IMF commends Dominica for reducing debt
Review: Budget consultations are under way
Review: Grenada has fully recovered from Hurricane Ivan
Review: Vote of no confidence avoided
Review: Construction of new capital continues
Review: Elections expected in 2009
Review: Fiscal accounts under pressure
Review: No plan for Hess to build oil refinery
Review: Tourism investment remains buoyant
Review: Tourism and agriculture expected to weaken in 2009
The region: Summary
Outlook for 2009-10: Several Caricom countries have elections ahead
Outlook for 2009-10: Drug-trafficking will remain a major security concern
Outlook for 2009-10: Regional integration will advance slowly
Outlook for 2009-10: Public finances will remain under strong pressure
Outlook for 2009-10: The tourism sector will be hit by the US downturn
Outlook for 2009-10: Tighter global liquidity threatens mining investments
Outlook for 2009-10: Financial sectors' performance will vary across the region
Recent developments: A new trade framework is agreed with the EU
Recent developments: Caribbean leaders assess impact of Obama presidency
Recent developments: Discussions on expanded integration continue
Recent developments: Overactive hurricane season has lasting economic impact
Recent developments: The outlook for tourism is bleak
Recent developments: Airlines adjusting services to reflect changes in demand
Recent developments: Cruise arrivals performance remains mixed