Country Report Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States March 2009

Publication Date	March 2009
Publisher	EIU
Product Type	Report
Pages	33
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	EIU01375

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Summary

Outlook for 2009-10

Elections are expected before the end of 2009 in several Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) member states. A general election in Antigua-Barbuda will take place on March 12th, with the ruling United Progressive Party (UPP) widely favoured to maintain power. Elections in StKitts-Nevis, Dominica and Anguilla are due by mid-2010, but may be held sooner. Ambitious targets for further economic and political integration within the OECS are under discussion, but finding the unity and political will to carry the process forward will be difficult, particularly as the region attempts to deal with mounting economic challenges. Economic performance across the region will deteriorate in 2009 as a result of the global recession, with the US and UK particularly badly hit, which will constrain tourism demand, and a global shortage of liquidity to finance investment projects that will dampen growth in construction. In those countries that do not rely heavily on tourism, such as StVincent and the Grenadines and Dominica, growth will be held back by the uncertain future of the banana industry. Prospects for agriculture remain poor, unless a regional scheme to support banana producers is agreed. Manufacturing will face greater competition, following the OECSs decision to join the Caribbean Single Market and Economy (CSME) in2006.

Summary

Stopover tourism performed weakly in 2008. With demand deteriorating as the year progressed, arrivals are set to fall sharply in 2009. According to IMF estimates, real GDP growth in the OECS slowed to just 2% in 2008 as a result of sluggish construction and tourism performance. The government of Anguilla is drawing up plans to issue bonds and treasury bills; it would be the first time that the country has attempted to issue bonds. Sir Allen Stanford, the largest private-sector employer in Antigua-Barbuda, has been charged by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) over an alleged multi-billion-dollar fraud. Fuel prices have been reduced in Dominica. The government of Grenada estimates that unemployment could rise to 30% by the end of 2009; it currently stands at 24%. There have been renewed volcanic eruptions in Montserrat. The opposition has raised concerns over potential electoral fraud in St Kitts-Nevis. In Saint Lucia, a commission of enquiry has been appointed to investigate corruption allegations against the government of Kenny Anthony (1997-2006). Real GDP growth slowed sharply in St Vincent and the Grenadines in 2008 (to just 2%, down from 7% in 2007), despite annual growth of over 10% in the construction sector.

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 48;70;49;1;60
NAICS Code: 517;72;22;11;52

Content

Summary
Anguilla: political and economic structure
Anguilla: political and economic structure: Annual indicators
Antigua and Barbuda: political and economic structure
Antigua and Barbuda: political and economic structure: Annual indicators
Dominica: political and economic structure
Dominica: political and economic structure: Annual indicators
Grenada: political and economic structure
Grenada: political and economic structure: Annual indicators
Montserrat: political and economic structure
Montserrat: political and economic structure: Annual indicators
St Kitts-Nevis: political and economic structure
St Kitts-Nevis: political and economic structure: Annual indicators
Saint Lucia: political and economic structure
Saint Lucia: political and economic structure: Annual indicators
St Vincent and the Grenadines: political and economic structure
St Vincent and the Grenadines: political and economic structure: Annual indicators
Outlook for 2009-10
Outlook for 2009-10: Global economic slowdown will hurt OECS growth
Outlook for 2009-10: High debt levels will remain a damper on growth
Outlook for 2009-10: Crime will continue to have an economic impact
Outlook for 2009-10: The OECS will remain vulnerable to natural disasters
Review: Heads seek collaborative response to financial crisis
Review: Credit growth slows as confidence deteriorates
Review: IMF projects weak GDP growth in 2009
Review: The global downturn is affecting tourism
Review: Violent crime remains a major concern
Anguilla: Anguilla gets largest budget ever for 2009
Anguilla: Government may attempt to issue bonds in 2009
Antigua-Barbuda: Election called in midst of Stanford fraud controversy
Dominica: Cabinet reshuffled after minister dismissed
Dominica: Energy prices lowered for seventh consecutive time
Grenada: New government presents first budget
Grenada: IMF releases grant funds
Grenada: Unemployment set to rise on account of global slowdown
Montserrat: Volcanic activity prompts evacuation
Montserrat: UK budgetary support hit by sterling depreciation
St Kitts-Nevis: Opposition complains about electoral process
St Kitts-Nevis: Budget focuses on reducing debt
Saint Lucia: Prime minister sheds external affairs portfolio
Saint Lucia: Commission to investigate previous government
Saint Lucia: EU to fund new hospital
St Vincent and the Grenadines: Reliance on grant funding set to rise in 2009
The region: Summary
Outlook for 2009-10: Broad political stability will be maintained
Outlook for 2009-10: Regional integration will advance slowly
Outlook for 2009-10: Economic downturn will impact public finances
Outlook for 2009-10: The tourism sector will be hit by the global downturn
Outlook for 2009-10: Tighter global liquidity threatens resource investments
Outlook for 2009-10: The outlook for agriculture is mixed
Outlook for 2009-10: Financial sectors' performance will vary across the region
Outlook for 2009-10: Crime will remain a major security concern
Recent developments: Political response to global crisis has been slow
Recent developments: A major regional conglomerate is bailed out
Recent developments: Massive fraud puts spotlight on region's financial sector
Recent developments: Tourism sector hit hard by falling demand