Country Report Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States September 2009

Publication Date	September 2009
Publisher	EIU
Product Type	Report
Pages	32
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	EIU00540

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Summary

Outlook for 2009-10

Despite a severe economic downturn in 2009, the eight members of the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) will continue to enjoy broad political stability during the forecast period. Following March elections in Antigua-Barbuda, no other OECS country is scheduled to hold general elections in 2009. However, elections in St Kitts-Nevis, Dominica and Anguilla are due by mid-2010 and may be called earlier. Ambitious targets for further economic and political integration within the OECS will remain under discussion, but finding the unity and political will to carry the process forward will prove difficult in practice, particularly as the region attempts to deal with mounting economic challenges. Prospects for real GDP growth in the OECS during the forecast period are poor. A sharp downturn in world economic conditions, and in particular the international financial crisis and a deep contraction in demand in the US and UK, will push most OECS economies into recession in 2009; recovery in 2010 will be slow. In those countries that do not rely heavily on tourism, such as St? Vincent and the Grenadines and Dominica, growth will be held back by the uncertain future of the banana industry.

Review

With US demand down sharply as a result of a deep recession, key tourism markets such as Antigua-Barbuda and Saint Lucia are experiencing significant declines in arrivals. A new ferry service will link much of the OECS, helping to reduce travel costs and facilitate the movement of people and goods throughout the region. Real GDP growth in Anguilla will contract sharply in 2009 following a modest decline (0.5%) in 2008. The government of Antigua-Barbuda is being sued for at least US$8bn by a group of investors who lost billions in a Ponzi scheme run by Allen Stanford, the president of the Antigua-based Stanford International Bank (SIB). Although official forecasts still project real GDP growth this year in Dominica, the government formally requested SDR3.3m (around US$5m) from the IMF on July 10th under the Exogenous Shock Facility (ESF). After being in office for just over a year, the prime minister of Grenada, Tillman Thomas, reshuffled his cabinet on July 30th. In the run-up to the 2010 general elections, a row has broken out between the two main political parties in St Kitts-Nevis over attempts to make last-minute changes to the constituency boundaries. St Vincent and the Grenadines has no plans to adopt a common currency, the Sucre, now under discussion between the countries of the Venezuela-led Alternativa Bolivariana para los Pueblos de Nuestra America (ALBA, the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas), which it joined in April.

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 70;47;15;60;10;49
NAICS Code: 72;48;23;52;212;22;11

Content

Summary
Anguilla: political and economic structure
Anguilla: political and economic structure: Annual indicators
Antigua and Barbuda: political and economic structure
Antigua and Barbuda: political and economic structure: Annual indicators
Dominica: political and economic structure
Dominica: political and economic structure: Annual indicators
Grenada: political and economic structure
Grenada: political and economic structure: Annual indicators
Montserrat: political and economic structure
Montserrat: political and economic structure: Annual indicators
St Kitts-Nevis: political and economic structure
St Kitts-Nevis: political and economic structure: Annual indicators
Saint Lucia: political and economic structure
Saint Lucia: political and economic structure: Annual indicators
St Vincent and the Grenadines: political and economic structure
St Vincent and the Grenadines: political and economic structure: Annual indicators
Outlook for 2009-10
Outlook for 2009-10: Global economic slowdown will hurt OECS growth
Outlook for 2009-10: High debt levels will remain a damper on growth
Outlook for 2009-10: Crime will continue to have an economic impact
Outlook for 2009-10: The OECS will remain vulnerable to natural disasters
Review: Tourism sector continues to suffer effects of global crisis
Review: New ferry service to reduce travel costs
Anguilla: Economic activity falls sharply as construction boom ends
Antigua and Barbuda: Massive lawsuit filed against government
Antigua and Barbuda: Impact of slowdown expected to be severe
Dominica: Budget projects fiscal surplus despite slowdown
Dominica: Public-sector construction supporting growth
Dominica: Dominica approaches IMF for help
Grenada: The cabinet is reshuffled
Grenada: New attorney-general appointed in wake of scandal
Grenada: Economic outlook remains poor
Grenada: VAT to be implemented in early 2010
St Kitts and Nevis: Electoral boundaries dispute flares as election approaches
St Kitts and Nevis: Outlook for economy remains poor
St Kitts and Nevis: Debt declined marginally in 2008
St Lucia: St Lucia receives IMF funds as economy contracts
St Vincent and the Grenadines: St Vincent will not adopt the sucre as its currency
The region: Summary
Outlook for 2009-10: Broad political stability will be maintained despite recession
Outlook for 2009-10: Regional integration will advance slowly
Outlook for 2009-10: Economic downturn will impact public finances
Outlook for 2009-10: The tourism sector will be hit by the global downturn
Outlook for 2009-10: Tighter global liquidity threatens resource investments
Outlook for 2009-10: The outlook for agriculture is mixed
Outlook for 2009-10: Financial-sector performance will vary across the region
Outlook for 2009-10: Crime will remain a major security concern
Recent developments: Caricom plans joint approach to lending agencies
Recent developments: Venezuela unlikely to be admitted to regional bloc
Recent developments: Venezuela denies changes to PetroCaribe imminent
Recent developments: Tourist arrivals down sharply as global recession bites
Recent developments: New ferry service to link eastern Caribbean