Country Report Togo July 2009

Outlook for 2009-10

The ruling party and the opposition will begin to gear up for the presidential election in 2010. It is unclear whether Gilchrist Olympio, the leader of the main opposition party, will be allowed to stand, but if the opposition can unite behind a single candidate the president, Faure Gnassingbe of the ruling Rassemblement du peuple togolais (RPT), will face a stiff challenge. Economic policy will be driven by the demands of the poverty reduction and growth facility (PRGF) with the IMF, on which Togo depends for access to foreign aid and debt relief. Real GDP is forecast to grow by just 1.8% in 2009, constrained by the world economic downturn, and by a slightly faster 2.7% in 2010, helped by a gradual global rebound and restructuring and investment in the energy, phosphate, cotton and banking sectors.

The political scene

Togo's security forces thwarted an attempted coup in mid-April, ostensibly masterminded by Kpatcha Gnassingbe, the president's half-brother and former defence minister. Tension between Mr? Gnassingbe, who represents the reformist wing of the RPT, and his elder sibling, who represents the conservative wing, has been mounting since their father died in 2005. Kpatcha Gnassingbe (alongside 18 soldiers and ten civilians) remains in detention, charged with plotting a rebellion. The army and the RPT came out strongly in support of the president, helping to cement his authority. Togo has formed a Truth, Justice and Conciliation Commission, but the RPT and the parliamentary opposition remain divided about electoral reform.

Economic policy

The World Bank has approved funding for three new projects in Togo, worth US$59m in total, geared towards strengthening the physical and policy environment. The projects include infrastructure rehabilitation and the power sector, economic recovery and governance, and financial sector reform.

The domestic economy

Inflation fell to 3.1% year on year in April, the lowest for 18 months, because of lower food and oil prices. Togo Telecom is one of the stakeholders in the proposed West African Cable System, which is due to start operating in 2011. To take advantage, Togo will roll out a new domestic fibre-optic network.

Foreign trade and payments

Togo has concluded debt-relief agreements with the European Investment Bank and Belgium. New loans and grants have been secured from China, France and development finance institutions.

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 48
NAICS Code: 517