Country Report Trinidad and Tobago July 2009

Summary

The already low popularity of the prime minister, Patrick Manning, will be eroded further by the economic downturn and rising violent crime.
Policymaking will become more challenging in 2009-10 as the deterioration of the fiscal and current-account balances leaves Trinidad and Tobago exposed to global financial and economic woes.
GDP growth will slow sharply in 2009, to 0.9%, as the global recession bites. A mild global economic recovery will help to lift GDP growth to 1.9% in 2010.
The exchange rate will remain around its quasi-fixed level of TT$6.3:US$1 throughout the forecast period, supported by a strong reserves position.

The attorney-general, John Jeremie, was the subject of a no-confidence vote passed by the Law Association on July 1st, just weeks after he was appointed to the post. However, he retains the support of the prime minister.
There were 271 murders in the first six months of 2009, an increase of around 30% on the same period year on year. Trinidad and Tobago has now overtaken Jamaica as the Caribbean country with the highest murder rate.
With credit to the private sector continuing to slow sharply, at its June monetary policy meeting the central bank continued its current easing cycle, cutting the overnight repurchase (repo) rate by 50 basis points, to 7.5%.
In June the prime minister announced plans to begin exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Jamaica as a matter of "national priority" in an effort to boost Jamaica's ailing bauxite industry, a key foreign exchange earner.
Lower food prices reduced 12-month consumer price inflation to 10.3% in May (from 11.9% in April), its lowest level since June 2008. However, food prices remain stubbornly high, having risen by 19.6% year on year in May.
The future of the Alutrint aluminium smelter project??