West Caribbean Business Forecast Report Q3 2008

Product Code BMI02068
Publication Date June 2008
Publisher Business Monitor
Product Type Report
Pages 45
ISBN Number 1745-0772
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The BMI Ratings can be used to rank emerging markets in terms of political risk, the economy and the quality of the business environment.

There are four ratings: a composite rating, a political rating, an economy rating and a business environment rating. These ratings are reviewed every month and the results posted on BMI's online service Emerging Markets Online (www.businessmonitor.com). he political and economy ratings have short- and long-term components. The long-term ratings are designed to reflect more structural considerations and will not change greatly in the short term. The short-term ratings will change frequently in response to more transient influences. All ratings are expressed as a number between one and 100. A high rating is an indicator of lower risk.

  • BMI ratings - West Caribbean
  • BMI ratings - Brief Methodology
  • Chapter 1: Country Reports
    • Dominican Republic
    • Political Outlook
    • Once, twice, three times a President
    • As expected, President Leonel Fernndez won a clear first-round election victory on May 16 on the back of the
    • incumbent's credentials in reviving the Dominican Republic's economy in recent years
    • Economic Outlook
    • FX Intervention To Mitigate Inflation?
    • The Banco Central de la Repblica Dominicana has announced measures to intervene in the local currency
    • market in order to help offset the pressures of imported inflation. With rising prices a dominant local issue,
    • this policy could have important implications for the presidential elections in May
    • Table: Dominican republic: Historical Data and Forecasts
    • Key sector Outlook
    • remittance costs to Decline amid slowing Growth
    • Although full-year figures have yet to be released by the Dominican Republic's central bank, we estimate that
    • remittances barely increased in 2007 to US$2.79bn (from US$2.74bn in the previous year)
    • Jamaica
    • Political Outlook
    • Panic On the streets Of Kingston
    • The government's inability to tackle Jamaica's growing violent crime problem has resulted in a shocking
    • murders in the January-April period
    • Economic Outlook
    • tourism industry On solid Growth Path
    • The Jamaican tourism sector has, so far, shown remarkable resilience to the slowdown in the US economy and
    • we expect the positive trends in the industry to continue
    • Table: Jamaica Historical Data and Forecasts13
    • Key sector Outlook
    • Puerto Rico
    • Political Outlook
    • Political instability clouds Upcoming election
    • With no political party able to take a sizeable lead ahead of November's ballot, Puerto Rico's gubernatorial
    • election is on course to be an extremely close affair
    • Table: Puerto rico: Key Figures in October Gubernatorial elections16
    • Economic Outlook
    • recovery still some way Off
    • The prospects of an economic recovery in Puerto Rico in FY2008 or FY2009 are looking increasingly doubtful
    • due to a worsening US picture, sluggish domestic demand, and political uncertainty
    • Table: Puerto rico: Historical Data and Forecasts
    • Key sector Outlook
    • table: Puerto rico: Medical Device Market Forecast18
  • Chapter 2: country summaries20
    • Bahamas
    • Table: the Bahamas: Historical Data and Forecasts20
    • Belize
    • Table: Belize: Historical Data and Forecasts
    • Bermuda
    • Table: Bermuda: Historical Data and Forecasts
    • Cuba
    • Table: Cuba: Historical Data and Forecasts23
    • Haiti
    • Table: Haiti: Historical Data and Forecasts
    • Netherlands Antilles
    • Table: Netherlands Antilles: Historical Data and Forecasts25
    • Turks & Caicos
    • Table: Turks & Caicos: Historical Data and Forecasts
  • Chapter 3: special report
    • Business Outlook For Global Frontier Markets
    • Growing Fast On the new Frontier
    • The 41 states that BMI examines in a new report on our online service may make up only a small slice of the
    • world economy, but they possess characteristics that will see them gain importance in the eyes of investors
    • and global businesses over the coming years
    • Table: Frontier Markets - Key Data and Projections For top 10 countries
    • Frontier investment
    • Potential and Pitfalls
    • The spectacular macroeconomic performance of frontier markets in recent years has been matched by mildly
    • successful efforts to deepen capital markets
    • Table: GDP Per capita, Us$ (in Order Of % increase)
    • Table: Diversity Through Frontier Markets - Correlation Coefficients January 2004-April 2008
    • Table: Frontier Market indices
    • Regional Overview
    • Laos
    • Neighbouring economies the Key to Growth
    • Laos's GDP growth has been boosted in recent years as neighbours China, Thailand and Vietnam compete for
    • its natural resources. GDP expansion in 2007 has been estimated at 7.6% and we see annual growth remaining
    • above 7% for our five-year forecast period
    • Yemen
    • Huge Potential, but Don't bank On Gcc Membership
    • Markets do not come much more frontier than Yemen, and, as would be expected, there is huge potential for
    • development, with the prospect of eventual GCC membership likely to act a key investment pull
    • Table: Yemen economic activity
    • Democratic Republic of the Congo
    • Mining industry to Drive Growth
    • The Democratic Republic of the Congo's mining industry will be a key driver of growth and is likely to attract
    • significant levels of FDI, with our real GDP forecasts standing at 8.3% and 7.9% in 2008 and 2009, respectively
    • Table: Democratic republic Of the congo - economic activity38
    • Cuba
    • investment Prospects after Fidel
    • The accession of a new leadership structure in Cuba has sparked excitement that the 45-year-old trade embargo
    • with the US may be lifted and Cuba may move toward market liberalisation
    • Table: Cuba Macroeconomic Data and Forecasts42
    • Mongolia
    • Minerals to Drive economic boom
    • Mongolia is in the midst of a massive resource-led economic boom that should lift GDP growth into the double
    • digits and underpin robust increases in exports and inflows of foreign investment capital over the long term
    • Table: Mongolia - economic activity

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