West Caribbean Business Forecast Report Q3 2008

Content

• BMI ratings - West Caribbean
• BMI ratings - Brief Methodology
• Chapter 1: Country Reports
  • Dominican Republic
  • Political Outlook
  • Once, twice, three times a President
  • As expected, President Leonel Fernndez won a clear first-round election victory on May 16 on the back of the
  • incumbent's credentials in reviving the Dominican Republic's economy in recent years
  • Economic Outlook
  • FX Intervention To Mitigate Inflation?
  • The Banco Central de la Repblica Dominicana has announced measures to intervene in the local currency
  • market in order to help offset the pressures of imported inflation. With rising prices a dominant local issue,
  • this policy could have important implications for the presidential elections in May
  • Table: Dominican republic: Historical Data and Forecasts
  • Key sector Outlook
  • remittance costs to Decline amid slowing Growth
  • Although full-year figures have yet to be released by the Dominican Republic's central bank, we estimate that
  • remittances barely increased in 2007 to US$2.79bn (from US$2.74bn in the previous year)
  • Jamaica
  • Political Outlook
  • Panic On the streets Of Kingston
  • The government's inability to tackle Jamaica's growing violent crime problem has resulted in a shocking
  • murders in the January-April period
  • Economic Outlook
  • tourism industry On solid Growth Path
  • The Jamaican tourism sector has, so far, shown remarkable resilience to the slowdown in the US economy and
  • we expect the positive trends in the industry to continue
  • Table: Jamaica Historical Data and Forecasts13
  • Key sector Outlook
  • Puerto Rico
  • Political Outlook
  • Political instability clouds Upcoming election
  • With no political party able to take a sizeable lead ahead of November's ballot, Puerto Rico's gubernatorial
  • election is on course to be an extremely close affair
  • Table: Puerto rico: Key Figures in October Gubernatorial elections16
  • Economic Outlook
  • recovery still some way Off
  • The prospects of an economic recovery in Puerto Rico in FY2008 or FY2009 are looking increasingly doubtful
  • due to a worsening US picture, sluggish domestic demand, and political uncertainty
  • Table: Puerto rico: Historical Data and Forecasts
  • Key sector Outlook
  • table: Puerto rico: Medical Device Market Forecast18
• Chapter 2: country summaries20
  • Bahamas
  • Table: the Bahamas: Historical Data and Forecasts20
  • Belize
  • Table: Belize: Historical Data and Forecasts
  • Bermuda
  • Table: Bermuda: Historical Data and Forecasts
  • Cuba
  • Table: Cuba: Historical Data and Forecasts23
  • Haiti
  • Table: Haiti: Historical Data and Forecasts
  • Netherlands Antilles
  • Table: Netherlands Antilles: Historical Data and Forecasts25
  • Turks & Caicos
  • Table: Turks & Caicos: Historical Data and Forecasts
• Chapter 3: special report
  • Business Outlook For Global Frontier Markets
  • Growing Fast On the new Frontier
  • The 41 states that BMI examines in a new report on our online service may make up only a small slice of the
  • world economy, but they possess characteristics that will see them gain importance in the eyes of investors
  • and global businesses over the coming years
  • Table: Frontier Markets - Key Data and Projections For top 10 countries
  • Frontier investment
  • Potential and Pitfalls
  • The spectacular macroeconomic performance of frontier markets in recent years has been matched by mildly
  • successful efforts to deepen capital markets
  • Table: GDP Per capita, Us$ (in Order Of % increase)
  • Table: Diversity Through Frontier Markets - Correlation Coefficients January 2004-April 2008
  • Table: Frontier Market indices
  • Regional Overview
  • Laos
  • Neighbouring economies the Key to Growth
  • Laos's GDP growth has been boosted in recent years as neighbours China, Thailand and Vietnam compete for
  • its natural resources. GDP expansion in 2007 has been estimated at 7.6% and we see annual growth remaining
  • above 7% for our five-year forecast period
  • Yemen
  • Huge Potential, but Don't bank On Gcc Membership
  • Markets do not come much more frontier than Yemen, and, as would be expected, there is huge potential for
  • development, with the prospect of eventual GCC membership likely to act a key investment pull
  • Table: Yemen economic activity
  • Democratic Republic of the Congo
  • Mining industry to Drive Growth
  • The Democratic Republic of the Congo's mining industry will be a key driver of growth and is likely to attract
  • significant levels of FDI, with our real GDP forecasts standing at 8.3% and 7.9% in 2008 and 2009, respectively
  • Table: Democratic republic Of the congo - economic activity38
  • Cuba
  • investment Prospects after Fidel
  • The accession of a new leadership structure in Cuba has sparked excitement that the 45-year-old trade embargo
  • with the US may be lifted and Cuba may move toward market liberalisation
  • Table: Cuba Macroeconomic Data and Forecasts42
  • Mongolia
  • Minerals to Drive economic boom
  • Mongolia is in the midst of a massive resource-led economic boom that should lift GDP growth into the double
  • digits and underpin robust increases in exports and inflows of foreign investment capital over the long term
  • Table: Mongolia - economic activity