West Caribbean Business Forecast Report Q3 2008
| Publication Date | June 2008 |
|---|---|
| Publisher | Business Monitor |
| Product Type | Report |
| Pages | 45 |
| ISBN Number | 1745-0772 |
| Product Code | BMI02068 |
Summary
The BMI Ratings can be used to rank emerging markets in terms of political risk, the economy and the quality of the business environment.
There are four ratings: a composite rating, a political rating, an economy rating and a business environment rating. These ratings are reviewed every month and the results posted on BMI's online service Emerging Markets Online (www.businessmonitor.com). he political and economy ratings have short- and long-term components. The long-term ratings are designed to reflect more structural considerations and will not change greatly in the short term. The short-term ratings will change frequently in response to more transient influences. All ratings are expressed as a number between one and 100. A high rating is an indicator of lower risk.
Content
- BMI ratings - West Caribbean
- BMI ratings - Brief Methodology
- Chapter 1: Country Reports
- Dominican Republic
- Political Outlook
- Once, twice, three times a President
- As expected, President Leonel Fernndez won a clear first-round election victory on May 16 on the back of the
- incumbent's credentials in reviving the Dominican Republic's economy in recent years
- Economic Outlook
- FX Intervention To Mitigate Inflation?
- The Banco Central de la Repblica Dominicana has announced measures to intervene in the local currency
- market in order to help offset the pressures of imported inflation. With rising prices a dominant local issue,
- this policy could have important implications for the presidential elections in May
- Table: Dominican republic: Historical Data and Forecasts
- Key sector Outlook
- remittance costs to Decline amid slowing Growth
- Although full-year figures have yet to be released by the Dominican Republic's central bank, we estimate that
- remittances barely increased in 2007 to US$2.79bn (from US$2.74bn in the previous year)
- Jamaica
- Political Outlook
- Panic On the streets Of Kingston
- The government's inability to tackle Jamaica's growing violent crime problem has resulted in a shocking
- murders in the January-April period
- Economic Outlook
- tourism industry On solid Growth Path
- The Jamaican tourism sector has, so far, shown remarkable resilience to the slowdown in the US economy and
- we expect the positive trends in the industry to continue
- Table: Jamaica Historical Data and Forecasts13
- Key sector Outlook
- Puerto Rico
- Political Outlook
- Political instability clouds Upcoming election
- With no political party able to take a sizeable lead ahead of November's ballot, Puerto Rico's gubernatorial
- election is on course to be an extremely close affair
- Table: Puerto rico: Key Figures in October Gubernatorial elections16
- Economic Outlook
- recovery still some way Off
- The prospects of an economic recovery in Puerto Rico in FY2008 or FY2009 are looking increasingly doubtful
- due to a worsening US picture, sluggish domestic demand, and political uncertainty
- Table: Puerto rico: Historical Data and Forecasts
- Key sector Outlook
- table: Puerto rico: Medical Device Market Forecast18
- Chapter 2: country summaries20
- Bahamas
- Table: the Bahamas: Historical Data and Forecasts20
- Belize
- Table: Belize: Historical Data and Forecasts
- Bermuda
- Table: Bermuda: Historical Data and Forecasts
- Cuba
- Table: Cuba: Historical Data and Forecasts23
- Haiti
- Table: Haiti: Historical Data and Forecasts
- Netherlands Antilles
- Table: Netherlands Antilles: Historical Data and Forecasts25
- Turks & Caicos
- Table: Turks & Caicos: Historical Data and Forecasts
- Chapter 3: special report
- Business Outlook For Global Frontier Markets
- Growing Fast On the new Frontier
- The 41 states that BMI examines in a new report on our online service may make up only a small slice of the
- world economy, but they possess characteristics that will see them gain importance in the eyes of investors
- and global businesses over the coming years
- Table: Frontier Markets - Key Data and Projections For top 10 countries
- Frontier investment
- Potential and Pitfalls
- The spectacular macroeconomic performance of frontier markets in recent years has been matched by mildly
- successful efforts to deepen capital markets
- Table: GDP Per capita, Us$ (in Order Of % increase)
- Table: Diversity Through Frontier Markets - Correlation Coefficients January 2004-April 2008
- Table: Frontier Market indices
- Regional Overview
- Laos
- Neighbouring economies the Key to Growth
- Laos's GDP growth has been boosted in recent years as neighbours China, Thailand and Vietnam compete for
- its natural resources. GDP expansion in 2007 has been estimated at 7.6% and we see annual growth remaining
- above 7% for our five-year forecast period
- Yemen
- Huge Potential, but Don't bank On Gcc Membership
- Markets do not come much more frontier than Yemen, and, as would be expected, there is huge potential for
- development, with the prospect of eventual GCC membership likely to act a key investment pull
- Table: Yemen economic activity
- Democratic Republic of the Congo
- Mining industry to Drive Growth
- The Democratic Republic of the Congo's mining industry will be a key driver of growth and is likely to attract
- significant levels of FDI, with our real GDP forecasts standing at 8.3% and 7.9% in 2008 and 2009, respectively
- Table: Democratic republic Of the congo - economic activity38
- Cuba
- investment Prospects after Fidel
- The accession of a new leadership structure in Cuba has sparked excitement that the 45-year-old trade embargo
- with the US may be lifted and Cuba may move toward market liberalisation
- Table: Cuba Macroeconomic Data and Forecasts42
- Mongolia
- Minerals to Drive economic boom
- Mongolia is in the midst of a massive resource-led economic boom that should lift GDP growth into the double
- digits and underpin robust increases in exports and inflows of foreign investment capital over the long term
- Table: Mongolia - economic activity
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