West Caribbean Business Forecast Report Q3 2008

The BMI Ratings can be used to rank emerging markets in terms of political risk, the economy and the quality of the business environment.

There are four ratings: a composite rating, a political rating, an economy rating and a business environment rating. These ratings are reviewed every month and the results posted on BMI's online service Emerging Markets Online (www.businessmonitor.com). he political and economy ratings have short- and long-term components. The long-term ratings are designed to reflect more structural considerations and will not change greatly in the short term. The short-term ratings will change frequently in response to more transient influences. All ratings are expressed as a number between one and 100. A high rating is an indicator of lower risk.

• BMI ratings - West Caribbean
• BMI ratings - Brief Methodology
• Chapter 1: Country Reports
  • Dominican Republic
  • Political Outlook
  • Once, twice, three times a President
  • As expected, President Leonel Fernndez won a clear first-round election victory on May 16 on the back of the
  • incumbent's credentials in reviving the Dominican Republic's economy in recent years
  • Economic Outlook
  • FX Intervention To Mitigate Inflation?
  • The Banco Central de la Repblica Dominicana has announced measures to intervene in the local currency
  • market in order to help offset the pressures of imported inflation. With rising prices a dominant local issue,
  • this policy could have important implications for the presidential elections in May
  • Table: Dominican republic: Historical Data and Forecasts
  • Key sector Outlook
  • remittance costs to Decline amid slowing Growth
  • Although full-year figures have yet to be released by the Dominican Republic's central bank, we estimate that
  • remittances barely increased in 2007 to US$2.79bn (from US$2.74bn in the previous year)
  • Jamaica
  • Political Outlook
  • Panic On the streets Of Kingston
  • The government's inability to tackle Jamaica's growing violent crime problem has resulted in a shocking
  • murders in the January-April period
  • Economic Outlook
  • tourism industry On solid Growth Path
  • The Jamaican tourism sector has, so far, shown remarkable resilience to the slowdown in the US economy and
  • we expect the positive trends in the industry to continue
  • Table: Jamaica Historical Data and Forecasts13
  • Key sector Outlook
  • Puerto Rico
  • Political Outlook
  • Political instability clouds Upcoming election
  • With no political party able to take a sizeable lead ahead of November's ballot, Puerto Rico's gubernatorial
  • election is on course to be an extremely close affair
  • Table: Puerto rico: Key Figures in October Gubernatorial elections16
  • Economic Outlook
  • recovery still some way Off
  • The prospects of an economic recovery in Puerto Rico in FY2008 or FY2009 are looking increasingly doubtful
  • due to a worsening US picture, sluggish domestic demand, and political uncertainty
  • Table: Puerto rico: Historical Data and Forecasts
  • Key sector Outlook
  • table: Puerto rico: Medical Device Market Forecast18
• Chapter 2: country summaries20
  • Bahamas
  • Table: the Bahamas: Historical Data and Forecasts20
  • Belize
  • Table: Belize: Historical Data and Forecasts
  • Bermuda
  • Table: Bermuda: Historical Data and Forecasts
  • Cuba
  • Table: Cuba: Historical Data and Forecasts23
  • Haiti
  • Table: Haiti: Historical Data and Forecasts
  • Netherlands Antilles
  • Table: Netherlands Antilles: Historical Data and Forecasts25
  • Turks & Caicos
  • Table: Turks & Caicos: Historical Data and Forecasts
• Chapter 3: special report
  • Business Outlook For Global Frontier Markets
  • Growing Fast On the new Frontier
  • The 41 states that BMI examines in a new report on our online service may make up only a small slice of the
  • world economy, but they possess characteristics that will see them gain importance in the eyes of investors
  • and global businesses over the coming years
  • Table: Frontier Markets - Key Data and Projections For top 10 countries
  • Frontier investment
  • Potential and Pitfalls
  • The spectacular macroeconomic performance of frontier markets in recent years has been matched by mildly
  • successful efforts to deepen capital markets
  • Table: GDP Per capita, Us$ (in Order Of % increase)
  • Table: Diversity Through Frontier Markets - Correlation Coefficients January 2004-April 2008
  • Table: Frontier Market indices
  • Regional Overview
  • Laos
  • Neighbouring economies the Key to Growth
  • Laos's GDP growth has been boosted in recent years as neighbours China, Thailand and Vietnam compete for
  • its natural resources. GDP expansion in 2007 has been estimated at 7.6% and we see annual growth remaining
  • above 7% for our five-year forecast period
  • Yemen
  • Huge Potential, but Don't bank On Gcc Membership
  • Markets do not come much more frontier than Yemen, and, as would be expected, there is huge potential for
  • development, with the prospect of eventual GCC membership likely to act a key investment pull
  • Table: Yemen economic activity
  • Democratic Republic of the Congo
  • Mining industry to Drive Growth
  • The Democratic Republic of the Congo's mining industry will be a key driver of growth and is likely to attract
  • significant levels of FDI, with our real GDP forecasts standing at 8.3% and 7.9% in 2008 and 2009, respectively
  • Table: Democratic republic Of the congo - economic activity38
  • Cuba
  • investment Prospects after Fidel
  • The accession of a new leadership structure in Cuba has sparked excitement that the 45-year-old trade embargo
  • with the US may be lifted and Cuba may move toward market liberalisation
  • Table: Cuba Macroeconomic Data and Forecasts42
  • Mongolia
  • Minerals to Drive economic boom
  • Mongolia is in the midst of a massive resource-led economic boom that should lift GDP growth into the double
  • digits and underpin robust increases in exports and inflows of foreign investment capital over the long term
  • Table: Mongolia - economic activity