Central Asia Defence & Security Report Q1 2008

The outlook for Central Asia in Q108 is relatively stable, despite civil unrest and the presence of terrorist and extremist groups. Terrorism is a significant security concern for Central Asia due to the wide range of extremist groups active across the region, such as Jamaat of Central Asian Mujahedins (JCAM), the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Uighur-led Islamic Party of Eastern Turkestan, Hizb ut-Tahrir al- Islami, the Muslim Brotherhood, the Kongra-Gel Kurdish organisation, right-wing Turkic group the Boz Qurd and Al-Qaeda. In Q407 the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit concluded with the 'Bishkek Declaration', pledging to increase co-operation with Afghanistan and to create an 'anti-drug zone' around the country. Additionally, the declaration called for increased collaboration on 'international information security' to change the Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure and to combat terrorism.

In addition to efforts to curb non-traditional security threats, the Central Asian region has also attempted to strengthen traditional defence ties. The Kazakhstan Ministry of Defense and Ministry of Emergency Situations has sponsored a computer-simulated disaster response exercise - Regional Co-operation 2007 (RC07), involving 230 civilian and military personnel from Central Asian states, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan and the US. For the exercise, the Kazakhstan Ministry of Emergency Situations employed its National Crisis Management Centre in Astana. The other participating states based their national response centres in Bishkek.

The geo-strategic significance of the Central Asia region has led to an increase in defence expenditure in the region. Both Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan increased their defence budgets, largely to modernise their forces and support existing military personnel. In 2007, most Central Asian states received increases in their Foreign Military Financing (FMF) assistance from the US. The US 2008 Fiscal Year budget proposal offered significant increases in defence funding for the South and Central Asian region, with a total amount of US$300mn proposed. However, the majority of the FMF funding is earmarked for Pakistan. Central Asian states set to receive FMF in 2008 include Kyrgyzstan with US$1.5mn (20.3%), Tajikistan with US$675,000 (up by 36.4%) and Kazakhstan with US$2mn (an increase of 42.3%).

Turkmenistan did not receive any FMF funding for 2008. Overall, the US FMF funding will remain steady under the FY08 proposal, with the International Military Education and Training programme (IMET) witnessing a significant funding increase of 15%.

Central Asia's arms and defence systems do not have a significant presence in the international arms trade, with most Central Asian states relying on Russia for arms and defence systems. However, a wellestablished illegal arms trade route runs through the Central Asia region, with the supply and demand for small arms and light weapons (SALW) emanating from ongoing conflicts in Nepal, Kashmir, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan. It is estimated that approximately 75mn firearms have found their way to conflicts in South Asia via the Central Asia region.