Central Asia Defence and Security Report Q2 2008

The outlook for Central Asia for Q208 is relatively stable, despite civil unrest and the presence of terrorist and extremist groups. Terrorism is a security concern for Central Asia due to the wide range of extremist groups active across the region, such as Jamaat of Central Asian Mujahedins (JCAM), the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Uighur-led Islamic Party of Eastern Turkestan, Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami, the Muslim Brotherhood, the Kongra-Gel Kurdish organisation, right-wing Turkic group the Boz Qurd and Al-Qaeda. However, the risks posed by insurgent groups to regional security have been offset by efforts to strengthen inter-state diplomatic and economic ties. In Q108 Afghanistan and Tajikistan developed stronger diplomatic ties through the new US$37mn bridge over the River Panj. The bridge was funded by the US in the hopes that Afghanistan and Tajikistan would revive old trade ties and eventually boost regional economic development.

The geo-strategic significance of the Central Asia region has led to an increase in defence expenditure in the region. Both Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan increased their defence budgets, largely to modernise their forces and support existing military personnel. In 2007, most Central Asian states received increases in their Foreign Military Financing (FMF) assistance from the US. However, the overall funding for the region has decreased from US$704mn in 2005 to US$305mn in 2008. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan all experienced decreases in funding between 2005 and 2008. Only Tajikistan received an increase in FMF, from US$496,000 in 2005 to US$675,000 in 2008. The bulk of the funding goes towards Pakistan, which received US$148mn in 2005. That figure increased to US$300mn in 2007 and will be the same for 2008.

Central Asia's arms and defence systems do not have a significant presence in international arms trade, with most states relying on Russia for arms and defence systems. However, a well-established illegal arms trade route runs through the Central Asia region, with the supply and demand for small arms and light weapons (SALW) emanating from ongoing conflicts in Nepal, Kashmir, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan.

It is estimated that approximately 75mn firearms have found their way to conflicts in South Asia via the Central Asia region.