Report: Country Report Kazakhstan February 2010 (EIU01164) from ReportBuyer.com

The president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, is likely to stay in office in 2010-11. However, he will have to work harder than before to ensure that tensions among the elite and the impact of the recession do not weaken his control.
The authorities will continue to pursue a multi-vectoral foreign policy, in terms of political, economic and security relations. Strong ties in these areas with Russia and China will be prioritised.
The drop in real GDP is estimated at 1.8% in 2009. Higher oil prices, improving global conditions and continued measures to support the non-oil sector will lead to moderate growth in 2010-11.
The budget deficit is estimated at 3.2% of GDP in 2009, which is wider than in 2008, reflecting efforts to counter adverse demand trends. The deficit will start to narrow in 2010, contracting to 2.3% of GDP in 2011.
The tenge's trading band will widen to Tenge127.5-165:US$1 from February 5th 2010. The authorities are likely to be wary of allowing too swift an appreciation of the tenge for fear of damaging the non-hydrocarbons sector.
The current account swung into deficit in 2009. Rising export revenue will result in modest current-account surpluses in 2010 and 2011.

The trial of Mukhtar Dzhakishev, a former head of the state-owned nuclear company, Kazatomprom, on corruption charges began in December. The investigation ahead of the trial was criticised for lacking transparency.
The authorities have signalled that they expect foreign investors to co-operate with the government over economic diversification. Greater emphasis on the use of locally supplied goods and services is expected.
The state-owned energy company, KazMunayGaz, has started talks with the consortium operating the Karachaganak oilfield over acquiring a stake in the project. The government is believed to want a 10% share.
Kazakhstan was the world's largest uranium producer in 2009, mining 13,500 tonnes from the start of the year until December 21st. The authorities expect uranium production to rise to 18,000 tonnes in 2010.
Industrial production rose by 1.7% in 2009. The mining sector was the main driver of the increase, as crude oil and natural gas production grew by 7.7%. The manufacturing sector fared less well, contracting by 4.5%.
In contrast to preliminary estimates from the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK, the central bank), the current account remained in deficit in the third quarter of 2009, despite an increase in the trade surplus.

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 10
NAICS Code: 212

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