Bulgaria Infrastructure Report Q2 2009

The government has announced a BGN5.6bn (US$3.66bn) fiscal stimulus plan for Bulgaria, with the funds invested in economic and social infrastructure projects. While this pro-active stance on the part of the government is a positive sign, for this quarter BMI nevertheless maintains its concern for Bulgaria's infrastructure sector as the tight credit conditions on global markets are affecting project financing operations while the government relies on the private sector financing to support long-term projects.

Indeed, news that the government is exploring the option of a Russian government multibillion euro loan for the country's flagship infrastructure project, the Belene NPP, indicates rising nervousness about the willingness (or possibly lack thereof) of the private sector covering the costs of the construction of the nuclear power plant. RWE, the strategic partner in the project further said that it is reluctant to commit any of the agreed funds (close to US$1.7bn) until state-owned NEK can secure its share of the financing.

On the a more positive note, investments were pledged for a new US$500mn wind farm (a sector that has shown great growth potential in the region) and the construction of a new terminal in Varna's airport.

The latest official preliminary data for 2008 show that the Bulgarian construction and by extension infrastructure industry reached a value of BGN4.7bn for the year (BMI was estimating value at BGN4.4bn). In BMI's Q209 Bulgaria Infrastructure Report we have revised downwards our forecasts for 2009 and in fact anticipate that value of industry to contract slightly to BGN4.6bn (US$3.4bn), as a consequence of the overall deteriorating macroeconomic outlook.

Although the value of the construction industry per se is forecast to remain quite low - averaging around BGN5.1bn every year between 2009 and 2013 - the industry will contribute an estimated average of 6.5% to the GDP over the period. This value underlines its value for the economy, and thus the threat its potential downturn poses.

As a result of dwindling external credit lines, shrinking export markets, widespread deleveraging and the gradual consolidation of corporate and household balance sheets, economic growth will continue to slow for the remainder of 2009, with a 1.1% expected in for this year, down from a projected 6.4% in 2008.

• Executive Summary
• Market Overview
• Bulgaria
• Global
• Weeding Out Possible White Elephants
• Mega-Urban Regions: Opportunities and Challenges for Infrastructure
• Mega-Urban Regions: Investment Opportunities And Risks
• SWOT Analysis
• Bulgaria Infrastructure Industry SWOT
• Bulgaria Political SWOT
• Bulgaria Economic SWOT
• Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT
• Major Infrastructure Developments and Key Projects
• Transport Infrastructure Overview
• New And Ongoing Projects
• Airports
• Road Networks
• Rail Networks
• Energy & Utilities Infrastructure Overview
• New and Ongoing Projects
• Power Plants and Transmission Grids
• Oil and Gas Pipelines
• Water
• Construction Overview
• New and Ongoing Projects
• Residential Construction
• Commercial Construction
• Tourism Construction
• Industry Forecast Scenario
• Business Environment
• RegionaL Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings
• Limits of Potential Returns
• Risk to Realisation Of Potential Returns
• Project Finance Ratings: Outlook for Europe
• Foreign Direct Investment
• Labour Force
• Legal Framework
• Tax Regime
• Macroeconomic Outlook
• Political Outlook
• Domestic Politics
• Domestic Politics
• Company Monitor
• Glavbolgarstroy
• Holcim (Bulgaria)
• Mott MacDonald
• Country Snapshot: Bulgaria Demographic Data
• Section 1: Population
• Section 2: Education And Healthcare
• Section 3: Labour Market and Spending Power
• BMI Forecast Modelling
• How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
• Construction Industry
• Sources
• Business Environment
• Ratings Overview
• Project Finance Ratings Methodology
• Construction Risks
• Operating Risks - Commercial Construction
• Operating Risks - Energy and Utilities
• Operating Risks -Transport
• List of Tables
  • Table: The World's 30 Largest Urban Agglomerations
  • Table: The World's Richest Cities In 2020 By Gdp
  • Table: The World's Fastest Growing Urban Areas
  • Table: Major Projects - Transport
  • Table: Major Projects - Utilities
  • Table: Major Projects - Construction
  • Table: Bulgaria Economic And Construction Data
  • Table: Design And Construction Rating
  • Table: Commissioning And Operating Rating
  • Table: Overall Project Finance Rating
  • Table: Bulgaria - Economic Activity
  • Table: Bulgaria Political Overview
  • Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
  • Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
  • Table: Education, 2002-2005
  • Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
  • Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
  • Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
  • Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
  • Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators