Croatia Infrastructure Report 2009

Publication Date	March 2009
Publisher	Business Monitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	81
ISBN Number	1754-4211
Product Code	BMI03620

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Summary

Industry Forecasts Croatia's construction sector is exposed to the headwinds generated in the second half of 2008 by the global financial crisis and recession in developed markets. This much was acknowledged by Prime Minister Ivo Sanader in November 2008, when he said in parliament that some infrastructure projects might have to be delayed because of reduced budgetary resources. Indeed, with GDP growth in Croatia during 2009 likely to be close to half that seen in 2007, tax collection will suffer. Further pressure on the construction industry will be generated by a reluctance on the part of banks to lend to developers.

Although the authorities have scrapped very tight marginal reserve requirements on foreign borrowings by banks, the reluctance of banks to lend means that overall liquidity in the private sector will remain under pressure. In this context, we forecast that real growth in the construction sector in Croatia will slow to 1.4% in 2009, from 3.6% in 2008 and 10.0% in 2007.

However, there should be a recovery from 2010, with real construction sector growth forecast at above 5.5% that year and over 7% in 2011. The long-term outlook is supported by the prospect of eventual EU membership. We currently forecast this to occur within the forecast period, most likely in 2012. Not only will this likely lead to an increase in investments as firms position themselves to take advantage of the country's full entrance to the European single market, but Croatia will be able to access many hundreds of millions of euros in pre-accession aid. This will help to keep fixed investment growth - which accounts for around 31% of GDP - ticking over in the coming years. At present, we are forecasting real fixed investment rising by an average of 4.6% between 2008 and 2012.

Key Projects Subject To Delay? Construction work on the Peljesac bridge could be subject to delays in 2009, due to the effects of the global financial crisis on Croatia's budget. The pressure on the budget also has possible implications for the work at Zagreb Airport, which, according to a report by HINA, may have to be financed through concessions, rather than direct budgetary outlays.

Company Analysis We evaluate the prospects of Konstruktor Inzenjering, looking at their strengths, weaknesses and opportunities, as well as the threat posed by the global economic downturn.

Content

Executive Summary
Market Overview
Croatia
Global
Mega-Urban Regions: Opportunities And Challenges For Infrastructure
Mega-Urban Regions: Investment Opportunities And Risks
SWOT Analysis
Croatia Infrastructure SWOT
Croatia Political SWOT
Croatia Economic SWOT
Croatia Business Environment SWOT
Major Infrastructure Developments And Key Projects
Transport Infrastructure Overview
Road
Air
Sea And River
Airports - Developments In 2007
Ports - Developments In 2007
Roads - Developments In 2007
Railways - Developments In 2007
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Overview
Power Infrastructure
New And Ongoing Projects
Power Plants - Developments In 2007
Pipelines - Developments In 2007
Water - Developments In 2007
Construction Overview
Commercial Construction - Developments In 2007
Tourism Construction - Developments In 2007
Major Projects
Industry Forecast Scenario
Risks
Business Environment
Limits Of Potential Returns
Risk To Realisation Of Potential Returns
Project Finance Ratings: Outlook For Europe
Foreign Direct Investment
Labour Force
Legal Framework
Tax Regime
Macroeconomic Outlook
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Company Monitor
Konstruktor inenjering
Country Snapshot: Croatia Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Construction Industry
Sources
Business Environment
Ratings Overview
Project Finance Ratings Methodology
Operating Risks - Commercial Construction
Operating Risks - Energy and Utilities
Operating Risks -Transport
List of Tables
- Table: The World's 30 Largest Urban Agglomerations
- Table: The World's Richest Cities In 2020 By GDP
- Table: The World's Fastest Growing Urban Areas
- Table: Croatia - Major Infrastructure Projects - Airports
- Table: Croatia - Major Infrastructure Projects - Roads
- Table: Croatia - Major Infrastructure Projects - Railways
- Table: Croatia - Major Infrastructure Projects - Pipelines
- Table: Croatia - Major Infrastructure Projects - Power plants
- Table: Croatia - Major Infrastructure Projects - Commercial & Residential Construction
- Table: Industry Forecast Data
- Table: Regional Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Design and Construction Rating
- Table: Commissioning and Operating Rating
- Table: Overall Project Finance Rating
- Table: Europe, FDI Annual Inflows
- Table: BMI Trade Ratings
- Table: Top Export Destinations
- Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)
- Table: Labour Force Quality
- Table: BMI Legal Framework Ratings
- Table: Croatia - Economic Activity
- Table: Croatia's Political Overview
- Table: Key Players
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Table: Education, 2000-2003
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2010 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2010
- Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators

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Product features / use

Level	General Industry Strategies
Data	Detailed Market Forecasts
Profiles	Profiles of Key Companies
Features	Contains SWOT Analysis
Extra Info	Consumer Trends Highlighted