Greece Business Forecast Q1 2007

Content

• Chapter 1: Political Risk
  • Core Scenario
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Political Risk Ratings
  • Domestic Political Outlook
  • New Democracy Wins Local Elections
  • Despite an unfavourable backdrop, New Democracy performed reasonably well in October's local elections The
  • governing party is likely to seek to take advantage of its slender lead in the opinion polls by calling the next general
  • election ahead of schedule
  • Table: Cabinet List
  • Foreign Policy
  • The Burgas-Alexandroupolis Oil Pipeline Agreement
  • Greece's oil pipeline agreement with Russia and Bulgaria will improve its geopolitical importance in north-eastern
  • Europe At the same time, the rapprochement between Greece and Turkey continues to strengthen although some
  • problems may result from Turkey's EU accession negotiations
• Chapter 2: Economic Risk
  • Core Scenario
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Economic Risk Ratings
  • Introduction
  • Greek Economic Prospects Remain Promising
  • With output growth remaining robust and inflation and unemployment decreasing, the outlook for the Greek
  • economy is promising However, strong domestic demand has contributed to a widening of the external current
  • account deficit
  • Economic Activity
  • Expansion Continues Apace
  • Economic growth remains surprisingly strong and continues to outpace the eurozone average Only a very mild
  • slowdown is expected in 2007
  • Table: Economic Growth
  • Monetary Policy
  • Falling But Comparatively High
  • Having hit a two-year low in October, inflation is now expected to average 33% in 2006 and to decline to 3% in
  • 2007 Although the inflation rate is trending downwards, it still outpaces the EU average, potentially harming the
  • economy's external competitiveness
  • Table: Monetary Indicators
  • Fiscal Policy
  • Draft Budget For 2007 Projects Narrowing Deficit
  • The government will succeed in bringing the budget deficit below 3% in 2006 and 2007 and thus exit EU fiscal
  • supervision However, an ageing population poses risks to fiscal sustainability over the longer term
  • Table: Budget & Debt Indicators
• Chapter 3: Special Report
  • BMI Sovereign Risk Ratings
  • Table: BMI Sovereign Risk Ratings
  • Emerging Europe
  • Table: Emerging Europe Sovereign Ratings - Evolution Of Ability To Pay
  • Table: Emerging Europe Sovereign Ratings - Evolution Of Willingness To Pay
• Chapter 4: Business Environment
  • Core Scenario
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
  • Legal Issues
  • Labour Force
  • Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)
  • Table: Employment Indicators (2005)
  • Foreign Investment Policy
  • Table: Greece Annual FDI Inflows
  • Table: Emerging Europe, Annual FDI Inflows
  • Foreign Trade Regime
  • Table: Top Export Destinations, US$M
  • Tax Regime
• Chapter 5: Key Sectors
  • Defence & Security
  • Military Structure & Defence Industry
  • The Greek defence industry is likely to continue to focus upon supplying a wide range of component parts and
  • ammunition to an international market, in order to supply the Hellenic forces A reduced expenditure by the
  • government and the general decline of the global arms trade will mean a smaller and more competitive market
  • for the already struggling Greek defence companies
  • Table: Defence Expenditure
  • Food & Drink
  • Retail
  • Greece has high per-capita consumption with an average rate of US$1,4499 in 2005 Overall, food consumption
  • in Greece is forecast to reach US$17bn by 2010 Mass grocery retail (MGR) sales development is expected to
  • benefit from rising disposable incomes with forecast growth of 1268% between 2004-2010
  • Table: Greece Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format - Historical Data and Forecasts