Romania Infrastructure Report Q2 2009

Publication Date	April 2009
Publisher	Business Monitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	84
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	BMI03656

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Summary

As it is becoming increasingly evident the countries of Eastern and Central Europe have been hit hard by the current financial crisis. Romania is hardly an exception in this instance. Shortage of credit, debt and floating exchange rates characterise the previously fast-growing Romanian economy. The infrastructure sector of the country has also been unable to avoid the crisis. BMI has, therefore, revised its forecasts to reflect this changing environment. In BMI's Romania Infrastructure Report Q209, we forecast that the construction sector of Romania will contract by 14.8% y-o-y in 2009.

It should be noted, though, that there is still a significant number of new projects. Indeed, the Romanian government is focusing its attention on the infrastructure sector. The Romanian Prime Minister, Emil Boc, is planning massive public investments in infrastructure in order to preserve and create jobs. He considers infrastructure investment to be 'the best anti-crisis measure', and 20% of the 2009 budget (EUR10.2bn) has been earmarked for such investments.

Nevertheless, the sharp fall in the real growth rate of the construction - and by extension infrastructure - sector has inevitably affected Romania's overall score in our Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings. Romania ranks in 11th out of twenty European countries rated, while it ranks 18th in our Project Finance Ratings for Europe.

Our overall view for Romania is vigilant. Despite the government's efforts to increase its public investments, investment flows in Romania are likely to slow down. Macroeconomic conditions are bound to deteriorate. For 2009, we forecast that real GDP growth rate will fall to 3.1% y-o-y, while we expect unemployment to rise 4.4%. We forecast that the economy will begin to recover in 2010, with growth projected to average 4.3% through the remainder of our five-year forecast period.

Content

Executive Summary
Market Overview
Romania
Global
Mega-Urban Regions: Opportunities And Challenges For Infrastructure
Mega-Urban Regions: Investment Opportunities And Risks
The Economic Implications Of Urbanisation
SWOT Analysis
Romania Infrastructure Industry SWOT
Romania Political SWOT
Romania Economic SWOT
Romania Business Environment SWOT
Major Infrastructure Developments And Key Projects
Transport Infrastructure Overview
New And Ongoing Projects
Airports
Roads And Bridges
Railways
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Overview
Stable Power Infrastructure
New And Ongoing Projects
Power Plants And Transmission Grids
Pipelines
Water
Construction Overview
New And Ongoing Projects
Residential Construction
Commercial Construction
Industrial Construction
Major Projects
Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry Forecast Overview
Risks
Commodities
Regional Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings
Limits of Potential Returns
Risk To Realisation Of Potential Returns
Project Finance Ratings: Outlook For Europe
Foreign Direct Investment
Labour Force
Legal Framework
Tax Regime
Corruption
Macroeconomic Outlook
Political Outlook
Company Monitor
Transelectrica
Strabag SE
Country Snapshot: Romania Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Construction Industry
Sources
Business Environment Ratings
Introduction
Ratings Overview
Project Finance Ratings Methodology
Operating Risks - Commercial Construction
Operating Risks - Energy and Utilities
Operating Risks -Transport
List of Tables
- Table: The World's 30 Largest Urban Agglomerations
- Table: The World's Richest Cities In 2020 By GDP
- Table: The World's Fastest-Growing Urban Areas
- Table: Major Projects - Utilities
- Table: Major Projects - Transport
- Table: Major Projects - Construction
- Table: Romania-- Infrastructure Industry Forecast
- Table: Design and Construction Rating
- Table: Commissioning and Operating Rating
- Table: Overall Project Finance Rating
- Table: Romania - Economic Activity
- Table: Romania Political Overview
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2005-2010 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Wages, 2006-2010
- Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators
- Table: Ratings