Turkey Defence and Security Report Q3 2008

In July, in the midst of political tension between the ruling AKP party and the army in the debate over the future role of secularism in the country, prosecutors charged a total of 86 people with plotting to overthrow the government. Two retired generals, Hursit Tolon and Sener Eruygur, were among those charged, accused of being members of an illegal armed group called Ergenekon. Eruygur is a former head of the paramilitary gendarmerie, while Tolon is a former first army commander. The prosecutors claimed that among Ergenekons members were high-ranking officers, civil servants, journalists, and members of the intelligence services. They said that the organisation had been planning to organise mass rallies by pro-secular forces, provoke clashes with the police, and use the ensuing chaos to justify the overthrow of the government. Supporters of those being charged dismissed the case against them as a politically motivated revenge attack by the government.

Despite these serious tensions BMI notes that Turkeys political structure, and the civil-military relationship within it, remains resilient. A fatal division remains unlikely, given that both sides are fiercely nationalist neither want to jeopardise Turkeys EU membership efforts. Turkey faces a number of internal and external security threats. It has found itself on the front line of the war on terror, having been targeted by terrorist attacks perpetrated by Islamist groups in its major cities, and has suffered some consequences from the regional destabilisation caused by the war in Iraq. Furthermore, the increasing presence of ballistic missiles in the Middle East is of concern to Ankara.

Turkey is slowly embarking upon a modernisation of its armed forces and a reduction of the number of conscripts. The sheer size of the military stretches the establishment, but the number of troops is set to fall over the following years, as Turkey faces changed threats and a diminishing military budget. Turkey has long had a large military budget, a by-product of the dominant role played by the military in Turkish politics; however, the countrys weak economy, the pressure of EU membership hopes and the policy of the current government of assigning more funds to social programmes are likely to reduce the defence budget over the long term.

Turkeys defence industry is relatively small, and lacks efficiency and quality in the design and production of weapons systems. It has long relied on purchases or co-operation with foreign partners.

However, the industry is growing due to the continued boost by the Under Secretariat for Defence Industries through the preferential awarding of procurement contracts and the stimulation of technology transfers (via foreign company involvement). The effects of this should be felt in terms of both increased efficiency and quality of domestic products. Turkey is the worlds fourth largest arms importer. The volume of Turkeys imports is unlikely to change in the near future despite the evolving political picture.

Exports remain relatively insignificant due to the state of its defence industry it is the worlds 28th largest exporter. However, the move to boost local design and production is likely to increase exports over time as Turkey develops competitive products.

Domestic political stability is ensured but threats to Turkeys security, from both internal and external sources, remain significant. Turkey has the second largest armed forces in NATO, which need to be equipped with NATO-compatible hardware. This represents a great cost for a country with a small defence industry and limited budget, but fortunately Ankara is perceived to be a pivotal player in relations between the West and the Muslim world.