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Turkey Infrastructure Report Q3
2012

  • Publication Date:May 2012
  • Publisher:Business Monitor
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:75
  • ISBN:1750-5534

Turkey Infrastructure Report Q3 2012

BMI View: Despite macro concerns and waning confidence in the Turkish economy - prompting a downward revision to our forecasts in February 2012 - we still expect healthy growth of 5.8% in 2012's construction industry value. Rising government budget deficit, increasing cost of credit and structural flaws in the domestic banking and pension sectors pose significant downward risks; however, we remain optimistic about the industry's growth potential, thanks to a slew of ongoing high-profile projects in the country. The most notable of these are: the Sino-Turkish 'strategic partnership' high-speed rail project; the Izmit Bay Crossing and the Izmir-Istanbul highway; the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline; and various major power plant projects around the country.

We have long held a positive growth outlook for Turkey's construction sector, prompted by a combination of government commitment, an open business environment (Turkey scores highly in BMI's Infrastructure risk/rewards rating) and a flurry of major projects in the pipeline (most notably the Izmit Bay Crossing, the Izmir-Istanbul highway and the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline).

However, there are mounting risks to Turkey's construction sector outlook, which come in the form of: the European debt crisis, structural flaws in the domestic pension and banking sectors, erratic monetary policy and the rising cost of credit. Together, these factors impelled a marginal downward revision to our sector forecasts in February 2012. Average real growth for the period 2012-16 is forecast to come in at 4.9%, down from our previous figure of 6%

We believe there will be sustained growth in Turkey's construction sector over our forecast period; however, due to the country's history of high volatility and abrupt trends, in addition to the potentially far-reaching repercussions for the Turkish economy if there were to be a contraction in the construction sector, we are keeping a careful eye on the forecast. From 2012 onwards, our core forecast scenario sees Turkey's infrastructure sector gradually becoming the main contributor to overall construction industry value. If this plays out, it will take the place of the residential and non-residential building sector, which currently dominates.

Other key predictions include: • We expect the transport infrastructure segment to drive the country's infrastructure growth from 2012 onwards. The rail sub-sector will do most of the work and is due to receive a boost from a Chinese loan to fund the construction of high-speed train lines spanning 7000km between Edrine and Kars. The construction of the Izmit Bay Crossing-Gebze-Izmir motorway and the ongoing work on the Marmaray tunnel beneath the Bosphorous strait are other key projects promoting growth in the transport sector, which we expect to average just below 10% year-on-year between 2012 and 2016.

  • Promising developments are also taking place in the energy and the utilities segment, where we expect growth to be led by the country's large population, low current per capita power consumption and historically high consumption growth. A further push to this will come from the government's National Wind Energy System, which was unveiled in October 2011 and will involve the setting up of a locally-built 500KW wind turbine by end-2012 and a 2,500KW wind turbine by 2014 in the first stage. BMI expects Turkey's energy & utilities infrastructure industry value to register annual average real growth of just below 8% between 2012 and 2016.
  • Residential & non-residential construction activity will significantly underperform the wider construction industry during the period 2012-16, with modest annual average growth of around 1% in real terms. However, Istanbul will continue to be a key focus of growth and investment within the country, with a number of high-profile commercial, residential and tourism-related projects having been launched in the city.
  • BMI Industry View
  • SWOT Analysis
  • Turkey Infrastructure SWOT
  • Market Overview
  • Turkey: Major Domestic Construction Players
  • Building Materials
  • Global
  • Europe
    • Table: Cement - Price/Volume % Variances (9m10/9m11)
  • Cement Forecasts
    • Table: Turkey Cement Production and Consumption Data, 2009 - 2016
    • Table: Turkey Cement Production and Consumption Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021
  • Industry Forecast Scenario
    • Table: Turkey Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
    • Table: Turkey Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
  • Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
  • Transport Infrastructure
    • Table: Turkey Transport Infrastructure Industry Data, 2007 - 2016
    • Table: Turkey Transport Infrastructure Industry Long Term Forecasts, 2012 - 2021
  • Transport Infrastructure Outlook and Overview
    • Table: Coming To Market: Motorways And Bridges To Be Privatised
  • Major Projects Table - Transport
    • Table: Major Projects - Transport
  • Energy And Utilities Infrastructure
    • Table: Turkey Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data
    • Table: Turkey Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data
  • Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Outlook and Overview
    • Table: TEDAS Power Distribution Network Privatisation
  • The South East European Corridor Race
    • Table: Rival Gas Pipeline Projects
  • Major Projects Table - Energy and Utilities
    • Table: Major Projects - Energy And Utilities
  • Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure
    • Table: Turkey Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Data, 2007 - 2016
    • Table: Turkey Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Long Term Forecasts, 2012 - 2021
  • Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure Outlook And Overview
  • Major Projects Table - Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure
    • Table: Major Projects - Construction And Social Infrastructure
  • Risk/Reward Ratings
  • Turkey's Risk/Reward Ratings
  • Rewards
  • Risks
  • Regional Overview
  • Central and Eastern Europe Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
  • Turkey Infrastructure Report Q3
  • © Business Monitor International Ltd Page
    • Table: CEE Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
  • Gama Holdings
  • Enka Insaat
  • Nurol Insaat ve Ticaret A.S.
  • Global Overview
  • Methodology
  • Industry Forecasts
  • Construction Industry
  • Data Methodology
  • New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors
  • Construction
  • Capital Investment
  • Construction Sector Employment
  • Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
    • Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators
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