Macroeconomic Overview What to expect in 2009 from Ukraine

Publication Date	January 2009
Publisher	Concorde Capital
Product Type	Report
Pages	13
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	CNC00073

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Summary

This report endeavors to answer the most burning questions about Ukraine's economy in 2009 and beyond:

How will the new gas price affect the economy?
Is a Ukraine sovereign default likely?
UAH/USD: What will the rate be in 2009?
What will happen to the banking system in 2009?
How long will the recession last and what sectors will be value-creative?
How high will be inflation in 2009?
Will the budget be fulfilled in 2009?

Content

Forecast summary
HOW WILL THE NEW GAS PRICE AFFECT THE ECONOMY?
- Price for Russian gas at the border, USD/tcm - chart
- Schedule of price and amounts imported in 2009 - table
- Timeline of the 2008-2009 gas conflict
IS A UKRAINE SOVEREIGN DEFAULT LIKELY?
- Ukraines 5Y CDS, bps - chart
- External currency flows, USD bln - table
- External debt, % of GDP - chart
- External trade to contract in 2009 - chart
UAH/USD: WHAT WILL THE RATE BE IN 2009?
- Currency depreciation vs. USD, Sep 08-to-date - chart
- UAH/USD - chart
- NDF quotations - chart
WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE BANKING SYSTEM IN 2009?
- Rising external debt finances loan provision - chart
- Banking system balance sheet, UAH bln - table
HOW LONG WILL THE RECESSION LAST AND WHAT SECTORS WILL BE VALUE-CREATIVE?
- Economic growth nosedives - chart
- Production growth by sector - chart
- Drop in income forces companies to cut jobs - chart
HOW HIGH WILL BE INFLATION IN 2009?
- Inflation indicators - chart
- Gas price hike schedule - chart
WILL THE BUDGET BE FULFILLED IN 2009?
- 2009 budget compared to previous years - table
- Public debt will nearly double in 2009 - chart
MACRO MONITOR: charts
- GDP growth and GDP per capita
- GDP by sector in 9M08
- GDP by expenditures in 9M08, USD bln
- Real GDP & industrial output, chg yoy
- Industrial output growth by sector, chg yoy
- Inflation, chg yoy
- Real disposable income and average salary
- Interest rates
- Consolidated budget execution, UAH bln
- External trade, USD bln
- External trade in merchandise, 11M08
- External debt, USD bln
- NBU reserves
- Money supply structure, UAH bln
- UAH exchange rates
- Ukrainian macro indicators yearly - table
- Ukrainian macro indicators quarterly - table
- Ukrainian macro indicators monthly - table