Ukraine Autos Report Q4 2009

The Ukrainian auto sector is still reeling from the effects of the recession that hit the world economy last year. But there are signs that in the middle of 2009 the vehicles industry's performance may have bottomed out and could show tentative signs of incremental improvement for the rest of this year. Even so, substantial growth in manufacturing and sales of vehicles in Ukraine is not expected for some time, and for the rest of this year performance will still be well below what was seen in previous years. From 2011, however, Ukraine's auto sector could start showing signs of meaningful improvement again, but not before then.

A reflection of this is the fact that car production in Ukraine is still in the doldrums. Output fell by a staggering 83.6% year-on-year (y-o-y), to 6,501 units in May, according to estimates from The Ukrainian Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association (Ukravtoprom). In fact, BMI expects the rest of 2009 to be difficult for most carmakers as we forecast annual production to fall to 372,360 units, down from 400,467 units produced last year.

Ukraine's autos production is primarily geared towards the domestic market, although it also exports. As consumer confidence has been devastated by the global financial crisis, new car sales were down by 3.7 times y-o-y to 44,258 units over 4M09, local news source KyivPost has reported. In view of this, in 5M09 Ukrainian carmakers produced nearly 85% fewer vehicles, down to 30,036 units, compared with the same period last year. The fall was seen in all categories as carmakers restricted passenger car, truck and bus production to 28,908 units, 749 units, and 379 units, respectively over the period.

While these sales and production figures are particularly discouraging, at least they were not getting significantly worse in July. Indeed, there were tentative signs of a possible bottoming out in Ukraine's auto sector in that month. According to a research by investment bank Troika Dialog, sales of cars in Ukraine actually rose by 13,200 units in July compared to June, but this still represents a huge 78% drop y-o-y.

In the first half of 2009 the market share of light vehicle sales was dominated by AvtoVaz, with a 20.3% share, according to the Ukrainian daily newspaper Kommersant. This is well ahead of Hyundai Motor which attained a market share of 7.98%, followed by Toyota Motor with 6.13%. Chevrolet, ZAZ and Chery have a market share of around 5% while Mitsubishi Motors (MMC), ? koda Auto and Nissan Motor take up a share of around 4% each, followed by Geely Automobile with just 3.4%.

• Executive Summary
• SWOT Analysis
• Ukraine Autos Industry SWOT
• Ukraine Political SWOT
• Ukraine Economic SWOT
• Ukraine Business Environment SWOT
• Regional Overview
• Autos Mergers And Acquisitions
• Top Ten Auto Industry Deals
• Porsche And Volkswagen: Key Figures (2008)
• Cutting Down The Load
• Business Environment Ratings
• Western, Central And Eastern Europe Business Environment Ratings
• Industry Forecast Scenario
• Production And Sales
• Ukraine Autos Sector ??