Ukraine gets USD 16.5 bln IMF loan

Publication Date	October 2008
Publisher	Concorde Capital
Product Type	Report
Pages	2
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	CNC00006

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Summary

In this report, we provide our view what the IMF 16.5 bln loan to Ukraine will be used for. Based on our estimations of 2008 & 2009 current account deficit and public & corporate debt, we calculate whether this loan is sufficient to bolster liquidity in the banking sector, cover external debt obligations, and support the UAH.

Content

IMF offers USD 16.5 bln loan, requires parliament to act
- Are these funds sufficient to bolster liquidity in the banking sector?
- Our view: Where the funds will be spent
- Market reaction
TABLES
Key macroeconomic indicators and forecasts for 2008 and 2009
- 1. Real GDP growth
- 2. Nominal GDP, USD bln
- 3. Industrial output, % yoy
- 4. CPI (eop), % yoy
- 5. PPI (eop), % yoy
External sector
- 1. FDI net, USD bln
- 2. C/A balance, % GDP
- 3. NBU reserves, USD bln
Prices for core commodities, as of October 27
- 1. Gas imports, USD/tcm
- 2. Crude oil (URALS), USD/bbl
- 3. Winter wheat, USD/mt, FOB
- 4. Steel square billet, USD/mt, FOB
CHART
- UAH/USD, CDS and sovereign bonds