Ukraine Infrastructure Report Q4
2011
Market Research Report

Ukraine Infrastructure Report Q4 2011 Market Research Report

BMI View: Ukraine's beleaguered construction sector shows continued signs of growth thanks largely to the impetus of the 2012 football championships. We maintain our forecasts for growth this quarter as we see the industry responding well to demand. Q1 2011 construction industry value was 7.8% higher than Q1 2010. We expect the industry value to reach US$4.9bn in 2011 equating to 5.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth. Over the forecast period, sustained growth will raise the industry value to US$9bn by 2015.

Key developments in the last quarter included:

• The overall value of the construction sector, construction site preparation and building and facility construction in Ukraine rose by 13.2%, 13.9% and 16.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) respectively during the five months to May 2011, according to Kyiv Post. The highest rise in construction volumes were seen in the Volyn, Kyiv and Cherkasy regions, which were significantly above national averages. Construction completion and the installation of utility equipment fell, however, during the same period.
• State-owned Export-Import Bank of Ukraine (Ukreximbank) secured a US$200mn loan from the World Bank to finance an energy efficiency project, reports Kyiv Post. According to the deal, which was signed on June 10 2011, the World Bank will loan the money to Ukreximbank against government guarantees over 30 years. The energy efficiency project is designed to reduce energy use and loss in the Ukrainian utilities industry. The World Bank will screen borrowers and other banks involved in the project to ensure they are contributing to the project s objectives.
• The European Investment Bank (EIB) has announced that it is set to provide a EUR450mn (US$642.8mn) loan in order to fund the refurbishment of major roads in the Ukraine. The loan is the largest made by the EIB to the Eastern bloc. The improvements are expected to tackle approximately 350km across the five sections of highway around the capital We view the risk of a breakdown in relations between Kiev and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as having risen well above the level that could be considered non-negligible. Nevertheless, our long-held view for Ukraine to adhere its IMF Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) remains our core scenario and forms the basis of our political, economic and financial market outlooks for the country.

Political tensions are also rising between Ukraine and Russia, as the former moves into the concluding stages of negotiations regarding its Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) with the European Union (EU). We expect Russia to step up its efforts to dissuade Kiev from pursuing greater ties with the EU. Ultimately, we believe that Kiev and Moscow will come to some sort of agreement in exchange for Ukraine shelving the DCFTA. Nevertheless, we caution that tensions are likely to remain elevated in the near term as Russia and Ukraine continue to pursue aggressive lines of bargaining, and we do not rule out diplomatic ructions coming to a head.

• Executive Summary
• SWOT Analysis
• UKraine Infrastructure Industry SWOT
• Market Overview
• UKraine
• Building Materials
• Global Materials
• Europe Overview
• Industry Forecast Scenario
• Table: UKraine Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008-2015
• Table: UKraine Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2012-2020
• Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
• Transport Infrastructure
• Table: UKraine Transport Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008-2015
• Table: UKraine Transport Infrastructure Industry Data, 2012-2020
• Transport Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
• Transport Infrastructure Overview
• Major Projects - Transport
• Table: Major Infrastructure Projects - Transport
• Energy And Utilities Infrastructure
• Table: UKraine Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008-2015
• Table: UKraine Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data, 2012-2020
• Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
• Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Overview
• Major Projects - Energy And Utilities
• Table: Major Infrastructure Projects - Energy & Utilities
• Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure
• Table: UKraine Residential And Non-residential Building Industry Data, 2008-2015
• Table: UKraine Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Data, 2012-2020
• Residential/Non-Residential Construction Forecast Scenario
• Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure Overview
• Major Projects Table - Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure
• Table: UKraine Major Projects Construction And Social Infrastructure
• Business Environment
• UKraine Business Environment
• Rewards
• Risks
• Regional Overview
• CEE Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
• Company Monitor
• Aerobud
• Altis-Holding Corporation
• Global Overview
• Methodology
• Industry Forecasts
• Construction Industry
• Data Methodology
• New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors
• Construction
• Capital Investment
• Construction Sector Employment
• Infrastructure Business Environment Rating
• Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators