Ukraine's liquidity position

Publication Date	October 2008
Publisher	Concorde Capital
Product Type	Report
Pages	3
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	CNC00007

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Summary

We look at the structure of Ukraine's debt to determine how prepared the economy is for the global financial crisis. We revise our projections of Ukraine's key economic indicators, foreseeing less GDP and industrial output growth, a wider C/A deficit and weaker hryvnya over the next year. We estimate Ukraine's currency outflows in 4Q08 and 2009.

Content

1. Ukraine's debt servicing obligations
- 2. Ukraine's estimated currency outflow and inflow in 4Q08 and 2009
- 3. 4Q08: detailed analysis
- 4. 2009: detailed analysis
- 5. C/A: Crucial variable in currency outflow
- 6. Gas and steel price impact on C/A in 2009
- 7. Grain export impact on C/A in 2009
- 8. Forecast revision of key economic indicators
TABLES
- Ukraine's estimated currency outflow in 4Q08 and 2009
- Ukraine's estimated currency inflow in 4Q08 and 2009
- Ukraines sovereign ratings
Comparison of old and new economic forecasts:
Business Cycle:
- 1. Real GDP growth
- 2. Nominal GDP, USD bln
- 3. Industrial output, % yoy
- 4. CPI (eop), % yoy
- 5. PPI (eop), % yoy
External sector
- 1. FDI net, USD bln
- 2. C/A balance, % GDP
- 3. Trade balance, % GDP
Debt indicators
- 1. External debt, % of GDP
- 2. NBU reserves, USD bln
Interbank UAH/USD exchange rate (avg)
CHARTS
- 1. 5Y CDS Ukraine, bps
- 2. Impact of steel prices on GDP and C/A