Bahrain Business Forecast Q1 2007

Content

• Executive Summary
  • Focus On 2007
• Chapter 1: Political Outlook
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Political Risk Ratings
  • Domestic Policy
  • Parliamentary Elections: Key Implications
  • The outcome of the parliamentary and municipal elections in late 2006, with a significant rise in opposition
  • representation, is a positive step in Bahrain's democratic journey But parliament's weak powers and the
  • sectarian divide could be sources of tension going forward
  • Table: Selected Cabinet List
• Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Economic Risk Ratings
  • Introduction
  • The Quest For Diversification
  • Diversification is a key theme ahead, the need for which is magnified primarily by the eventual depletion of oil
  • reserves but also by accelerating regional competition on the finance front, which could potentially eat into
  • Bahrain's banking hub status
  • Economic Activity
  • Finance And Construction To Cushion Oil Price Blow
  • We expect to see a deceleration of growth over the forecast period, on the back of easing oil prices, but
  • expansion will still remain in healthy territory
  • Table: Economic Activity
  • Balance Of Payments
  • The Oil Propulsion Effect
  • We take a constructive view on Bahrain's external accounts over the coming years While the present export
  • vigour will diminish in line with our forecasted milder oil prices, and as a consequence pull down the trade
  • and current account surpluses, the medium-term outlook remains benign
  • Table: Balance Of Payments
  • Exchange Rate Policy
• Chapter 3: Special Report
  • BMI Sovereign Risk Ratings
  • Table: BMI Sovereign RIsk Ratings
  • Middle East and Africa
  • Table: Middle East & Africa Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Willingness to Pay
  • Table: Middle East & Africa Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Ability to Pay
• Chapter 4: Business Environment
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
  • Legal Framework
  • Labour Force
  • Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)
  • Foreign Investment Policy
  • Table: Bahrain, Annual FDI Inflows
  • Table: Middle East & Africa, Annual FDI Inflows
  • Free Trade Zones
  • Leading Sources And Sectors
  • Foreign Trade Regime
  • Tax Regime
• Chapter 5: Key Sectors
  • Pharmaceuticals
  • Market Summary
  • Bahrain's drug market is relatively small by regional standards, worth only US$492mn in 2005, although
  • growth is expected to be strong in the coming years, with the market size expected to almost double by 2010
  • Branded medicines will continue to account for the bulk of the pharmaceutical market, although slowly losing
  • minor shares to generics, from the present 96% Over-the-counter medicines generate a fraction of the total
  • market value, at 5% in 2005, with the percentage forecast to remain static throughout the forecast period
  • Table: Health Expenditure Forecasts
  • Table: Drug Expenditure Forecasts