Iran Business Forecast Q1 2007

Content

• Chapter 1: Political Outlook
  • BMI Core Scenario
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Political Risk Ratings
  • Domestic Politics
  • Hard-liners On The Rise
  • The growing power of the hard-liners means an increase in the risk of populist economic policymaking, greater
  • state involvement in the economy and a more confrontational stance in the foreign policy domain
  • Table: Cabinet List
  • Foreign Relations
  • Tehran's Brinkmanship Continues
• Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
  • BMI Core Scenario
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Economic Risk Ratings
  • Introduction
  • Economic Activity
  • Spending Drives Growth, But Inflation A Major Concern
  • Expansionary fiscal policy will be a key driver of growth over the forecast period, although economic mismanagement
  • and the possibility of international sanctions pose major risks to this scenario
  • Table: Economic Activity
  • Fiscal Policy
  • Oil Subsidies Stay
  • The fiscal balance will continue to deteriorate over the forecast period, widening to 47% of GDP in 2006 The
  • decision to keep energy subsidies this fiscal year was expected by BMI, and was already factored into our forecasts
  • However, the subsidy affair confirms concerns over the government's spending spree and economic policies
  • Table: Fiscal Policy
• Chapter 3: Special Report
  • BMI Sovereign Risk Ratings
  • What And Where Are The Risks?
  • Table: BMI Sovereign RIsk Ratings
  • Middle East and Africa
  • A Mixed Bag
  • Table: Middle East & Africa Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Willingness to Pay
  • BMI Sovereign Ratings Index Methodology
  • Table: Middle East & Africa Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Ability to Pay
• Chapter 4: Business Environment
  • BMI Core Scenario
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
  • Legal Framework
  • Labour Force
  • Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)
  • Foreign Investment Policy
  • Table: Middle East & Africa, Annual FDI Inflows
  • Table: Iran, Annual FDI Inflows
  • Foreign Trade Regime
  • Table: Top Export Destinations, US$mn
  • Table: Exports
  • Tax Regime
• Chapter 5: Key Sectors
  • Infrastructure
  • Table: Major Infrastructure Projects
  • Telecommunications
  • Table: Iranian Telecoms Sector - Mobiles - Historical Data & Forecasts