Report: Country Report Kuwait December 2009 (EIU00054) from ReportBuyer.com

The emir will remain the ultimate political authority. Disputes between parliament and the government are likely to persist in 2010-11, impeding progress on both economic and political reform.
Kuwaiti foreign policy will remain founded on a long-standing strategic alliance with the US. Efforts at Gulf Co-operation Council integration will also continue.
We forecast a budget surplus of over 13% of GDP in fiscal year 2010/11 (April 1st-March 31st) as oil prices and oil output rise. A further output rise in 2011 will offset a fall in prices, resulting in a broadly unchanged surplus in 2011/12.
Owing to higher oil production and higher volumes of Kuwaiti exports, we forecast that real GDP—which we estimate will have contracted by 1.7% in 2009—will grow by 3.7% in 2010 and 5.3% in 2011.
We forecast that average consumer price inflation will fall to around 4.5% in 2010 and further to 3.2% the following year, because of relatively low global non-oil commodity prices.
Export earnings are expected to rise in 2010, after declining in 2009. This will lead to a widening of the current-account surplus, from 21% of GDP in 2009 to around 26% of GDP in 2010. The surplus will fall back to 23% of GDP in 2011.

The new session of parliament saw a return to the political feuding that characterised the previous term. Four members of the government, including the prime minister, face being "grilled" by parliament on December 8th.
A proposal to buy up the entire consumer loan portfolios of local banks is gathering momentum both inside and outside parliament. A planned debate on the issue is scheduled to take place on December 23rd.
Fiscal data for the first half of 2009/10 showed a massive surplus of US$17.5bn. Revenue in the first six months exceeded the budgeted annual total, which had assumed an average oil price of just US$35/barrel.
Fiscal spending in the first half of 2009/10 was just 26.6% of the annual budgeted amount, but this is likely to reflect a tendency for expenditure to pick up in the second half of the year rather than frugality.
There was some progress on infrastructure projects in November. In particular, bids were sought for the country's first independent power and water project as part of a public-private partnership (PPP) scheme.
Poor results from some of Kuwait's largest blue-chip companies, coupled with the ongoing political crisis, led to a slump in share prices on the Kuwait Stock Exchange in November.

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