Country Report Lebanon September 2009
| Publication Date | September 2009 |
|---|---|
| Publisher | EIU |
| Product Type | Report |
| Pages | 29 |
| ISBN Number | not applicable |
| Product Code | EIU00525 |
Buy this product or for assistance call +44 20 7060 7474
Summary
Outlook for 2009-10
- A new government is still being formed, but is likely to be led by the pro-Western "March 14th" coalition and its allies, the winners of the June election.
- However, there is a risk that Lebanon could enter another protracted period without a functioning government.
- Even once a cabinet is agreed, policymaking will be hampered by a lack of consensus and by the unwillingness of fragile coalitions to address sensitive issues such as the sectarian political system and the role of militias.
- Lebanon will also remain vulnerable to renewed tensions in the region, especially between Saudi Arabia, Syria and Iran.
- There is a need for fiscal reform to reduce the large public debt stock, as the costs of debt servicing weigh heavily on the budget, but it will be slow at best.
- The budget deficit is forecast to widen in 2009 to more than 11% of GDP, as tax revenue growth slows and spending on wages and subsidies rises.
- Real GDP growth is forecast to slow to 3% in 2009??
Content
- Highlights
- Outlook for 2009-10: Domestic politics
- Outlook for 2009-10: In focus
- Outlook for 2009-10: International relations
- Outlook for 2009-10: Policy trends
- Outlook for 2009-10: Fiscal policy
- Outlook for 2009-10: Monetary policy
- Outlook for 2009-10: International assumptions
- Outlook for 2009-10: Economic growth
- Outlook for 2009-10: Inflation
- Outlook for 2009-10: Exchange rates
- Outlook for 2009-10: External sector
- Outlook for 2009-10: Forecast summary
- The political scene: The prime minister-designate fails to form a cabinet
- The political scene: Points of contention over the cabinet
- The political scene: The dispute has regional dimensions
- The political scene: Financier's default poses problems for Shia community
- Economic policy: Fiscal deficit is broadly unchanged in the first half
- Economic policy: Finance ministry revises budget and growth forecasts
- Economic performance: Export volumes rise but revenues see little change
- Economic performance: Capital inflows reach new record
- Economic performance: Banking sector enjoys further strong growth
- Economic performance: There is little new lending
- Data and charts: Annual data and forecast
- Data and charts: Quarterly data
- Data and charts: Monthly data
- Data and charts: Annual trends charts
- Data and charts: Monthly trends charts
- Data and charts: Comparative economic indicators
- Basic data
- Political structure
Delivery Details
PDF:Immediate delivery
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