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Country Report Qatar January 2009

Publication Date January 2009
Publisher EIU
Product Type Report
Pages 21
ISBN Number not applicable
Product Code EIU01170
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Summary

Outlook for 2009-10

  • The emir, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, will continue to focus on foreign policy challenges and opportunities to boost Qatar's prestige through its mediation efforts. Domestic political reform will not be a priority.
  • Qatar will maintain an independent foreign policy, but it will broadly align itself with the rest of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) with regard to relations with Iran.
  • Qatar will continue to pursue its economic diversification strategy, although the bulk of foreign investment over the outlook period will be directed into the oil and gas sectors.
  • Real GDP growth will average 16.6% in 2009-10, as substantial new liquefied natural gas and petrochemicals projects come on stream, although nominal GDP growth will be more sluggish owing to falls in oil and gas prices.
  • We estimate that inflation averaged 14.8% in 2008, and forecast that it will ease to 9.2% in 2009 and to 8.1% in 2010, as global commodity prices fall substantially and new housing stock becomes available.
  • The current account will record a small deficit in 2009, before rebounding to a strong surplus in 2010 as energy prices improve and gas export volumes surge.

Monthly review

  • Qatar has hosted a summit on the crisis in Gaza, which was attended by 13 Arab states and Khaled Meshal, the leader of Hamas. However, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, stayed away.
  • After years of tension, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have signed a comprehensive bilateral agreement including political, security, economic and media cooperation.
  • Qatar Petroleum has revealed some details of its five-year business plan. Although it was prepared before the current global slowdown and collapse in energy prices, it provides a benchmark for revenue and spending forecasts.
  • Doha, the Qatari capital, has been selected as the headquarters for the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, a group which controls 73% of global reserves.
  • The GCC has signed a free-trade agreement with Singapore, but has suspended long-standing efforts for a deal with the EU.
  • Two major projects, the US$5bn Al Shaheen refinery and a US$3bn petrochemicals plant, have both been put on hold in light of global financial and economic turbulence.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 60
NAICS Code: 52

Content

  • Highlights
  • Outlook for 2009-10: Domestic politics
  • Outlook for 2009-10: International relations
  • Outlook for 2009-10: Policy trends
  • Outlook for 2009-10: Fiscal policy
  • Outlook for 2009-10: Monetary policy
  • Outlook for 2009-10: International assumptions
  • Outlook for 2009-10: Economic growth
  • Outlook for 2009-10: Inflation
  • Outlook for 2009-10: Exchange rates
  • Outlook for 2009-10: External sector
  • Outlook for 2009-10: Forecast summary
  • The political scene: Qatar hosts a controversial Arab summit on Gaza conflict
  • The political scene: Qatar and Saudi Arabia sign a co-operation deal
  • Economic policy: QP budgets revenue of US$154bn in 2008-12
  • Economic policy: Doha chosen as headquarters for gas exporters' alliance
  • Economic policy: GCC signs trade deal with Singapore, but not with EU
  • Economic performance: Nominal GDP grows by 63% in the third quarter of 2008
  • Economic performance: Inflation eases in the third quarter
  • Economic performance: Two hydrocarbons projects are delayed
  • Economic performance: Population growth continues, led by foreign labour
  • Data and charts: Annual data and forecast
  • Data and charts: Quarterly data
  • Data and charts: Monthly data
  • Data and charts: Annual trends charts
  • Data and charts: Monthly trends charts
  • Political structure

Industry Events