Qatar Business Forecast Q1 2007

Content

• Executive Summary
  • Focus On 2007
• Chapter 1: Political Outlook
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Political Risk Ratings
  • Foreign Policy
  • US Relations To Remain Healthy
  • Qatar's relations with the US will not deteriorate in any meaningful way as a result of Doha's decision to pay
  • the wages of Palestinian teachers Moreover, the move, in addition to other developments, reflects Qatar's
  • bid to become a more influential force in the region
  • Domestic Politics
  • Risks Exist, But Stability To Be Maintained
  • Table: Selected Cabinet List
• Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Economic Risk Ratings
  • Economic Activity
  • A Robust Growth Outlook
  • We remain bullish on Qatar, and we see strong economic expansion over the remainder of the forecast period
  • Gas will provide the thrust of expansion, while the non-hydrocarbon sector will take on an increasing proportion
  • of GDP over the coming years
  • Table: Economic Activity
  • Fiscal Policy
  • Fiscal Surplus To Gradually Decline
  • Qatar will continue to maintain a comfortable fiscal position over the forecast period, with substantial
  • hydrocarbon revenues providing the bulk of government revenues Government spending will remain robust
  • over the forecast period, but increase at a slower rate than that seen over the last two years
  • Table: Budget (QAR bn)
  • Monetary Policy
  • Oman Drops Out Of Currency Union
  • Table: Monetary Indicators
  • Oil Policy
  • The Politics Of Oil Production
  • OPEC may be shooting itself in the foot if it cuts production too far in a bid to keep prices at 2006 levels:
  • global economic conditions have changed and continued high crude prices could cause serious economic
  • damage, particularly to oil-dependent economies like Kuwait, which has taken the brunt of production cuts
  • For this reason, we believe that OPEC will keep output at reasonable levels
  • Regional Capital Markets
  • Islamic Insurance: An Overview
  • High population and income growth, market liberalisation, the vast rise in insurable assets stemming from
  • abundant local liquidity and associated rocketing in project financing in the Gulf Co-operation Council region,
  • and the growth of sharia compliant financial products, will all spur the industry upwards
• Chapter 3: Special Report
  • BMI Sovereign Risk Ratings
  • Table: BMI Sovereign RIsk Ratings
  • Table: Middle East & Africa Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Willingness to Pay
  • Middle East and Africa
  • Table: Middle East & Africa Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Ability to Pay
• Chapter 4: Business Environment
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
  • Legal Framework
  • Labour Force
  • Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)
  • Foreign Investment Policy
  • Table: Qatar, Annual FDI Inflows
  • Table: Middle East & Africa, Annual FDI Inflows
  • Foreign Trade Regime
  • Tax Regime