Saudi Arabia Business Forecast Q1 2007

Content

• Chapter 1: Political Outlook
  • BMI Core Scenario
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Political Risk Ratings
  • Domestic Politics
  • The House of Saud's Shi'a Dilemma
  • Modest efforts to ease restrictions on Shi'a Muslims in Saudi Arabia have been put at risk in the aftermath of
  • the Lebanon war and continuing strife in Iraq However, while we do not foresee this resulting in violent confrontation,
  • there is some risk of greater sectarian unrest
  • Table: Cabinet List
  • Foreign Relations
  • Relations In The Aftermath Of The Lebanon Crisis
  • Disillusionment with the US over the Lebanese crisis is unlikely to be too damaging to bilateral relations, at least
  • in the short term given that Riyadh and Washington share a commonality of interests and threats
• Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
  • BMI Core Scenario
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Economic Risk Ratings
  • Economic Outlook - Introduction
  • Economic Activity
  • Bullish On Saudi Growth
  • Saudi growth will remain robust, coming in at just over 6% this year, underpinned by strong non-oil sector growth
  • The economy will slow next year due to a contraction of oil sector output but will remain above the 45% mark
  • Table: Economic Activity
  • Monetary Policy
  • Little Prospect Of A Revaluation
  • Despite abundant rumours of a revaluation of the dollar peg, BMI believes such a move is unlikely, given exchange
  • rate stability, contained inflationary pressures, strong export growth and the commitment to Gulf Co-operation
  • Council (GCC) monetary union set for 2010
  • Table: Monetary Indicators
  • Balance of Payments
  • Robust Current Account Future
  • Saudi Arabia is to record a current account surplus of over 30% of GDP, and will maintain its more than comfortable
  • external position over the forecast period despite easing global oil prices
  • Table: Balance of Payments
  • Regional Economic Outlook
  • The Politics Of Oil Production
  • OPEC may be shooting itself in the foot if it cuts production too far in a bid to keep prices at 2006 levels: global
  • economic conditions have changed and continued high crude prices could cause serious economic damage
  • For this reason, we believe that it will keep output at reasonable levels
• Chapter 3: Special Report
  • BMI Sovereign Risk Ratings
  • What And Where Are The Risks?
  • Table: BMI Sovereign RIsk Ratings
  • Table: Middle East & Africa Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Willingness to Pay
  • Middle East and Africa
  • A Mixed Bag
  • Table: Middle East & Africa Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Ability to Pay
  • BMI Sovereign Ratings Index Methodology
• Chapter 4: Business Environment
  • BMI Core Scenario
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
  • Legal Issues
  • Legal Framework
  • Labour Force
  • Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)
  • Table: Employment Indicators
  • Table: Saudi Arabia, Annual FDI Inflows
  • Table: Middle East & Africa, Annual FDI Inflows
  • Foreign Investment Policy
  • Overview
  • Foreign Trade Regime
  • Overview
  • Table: Top Export Destinations, US$mn
  • Tax Regime
  • Overview
• Chapter 5: Key Sectors
  • Autos
  • Industry Forecast Scenario
  • Table: Saudi Arabia Automotive Industry Historical Data & Forecasts
  • Infrastructure
  • Industry Trends And Developments
  • Table: Saudi Arabia Infrastructure