Saudi Arabia Defence and Security Report Q1 2009

The three months to the end of December brought several themes to the fore. One is the slight decrease in domestic terrorist activity in the face of the continued, systematic bolstering of security services by the Riyadh government. Notwithstanding this, Saudi Arabia remains unstable, with significant activity by anti-regime militants and the continuation of threats of violence, especially against foreigners.

Saudi Arabia's defence industry is small and underdeveloped - surprising when one considers the size and wealth of the country. The ongoing targeting of overseas employees by anti-regime militants could damage the defence industry, discouraging skilled employees from staying in the country. However, at the present time, multinationals maintain strong representation within the Kingdom.

Another key theme was the doubts raised over the current stand-off between the West and Iran over Tehran's nuclear programme, which continues to concern Saudi Arabia, although the international attention paid to the issue will be reassuring. Riyadh has been diplomatically active, supporting the Annapolis Middle East peace initiative trying to mediate in the Lebanese political crisis, seeking a similar balancing role in Washington's stand-off with Tehran over the latter's nuclear programme, and continuing to exert a moderating influence within the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

The outcome of the instability within Saudi Arabia has been the burgeoning of a lucrative market in industrial and commercial security equipment. However, with the domestic military-industrial base still weak, the majority of equipment is sourced from outside the country. Saudi Arabia has traditionally relied heavily on foreign sources of arms, and looks set to continue to do so in the medium term. The US has a large Foreign Military Sales (FMS) programme in Saudi Arabia, which affords the government the ability to purchase military items without bureaucratic delays. Recent surges in oil prices have allowed for new procurements, and the recent announcement of US preparations to provide Saudi Arabia with US$20bn of arms over the next decade should see that the Kingdom's defence imports remain high.

For the time being, we continue to expect that the Saudi government will increase defence spending by 5% annually, in real terms, over the coming years. Absolute increases will depend in part on how the country's economy fares in the face of the Global Financial Crisis. Thus far, the economy has avoided recession, but our oil price forecast for 2009 at US$75.00/bbl implies a significant but not disastrous downturn for the Saudi economy.