UAE Business Forecast Q1 2007

Content

• Chapter 1: Political Outlook
  • BMI Core Scenario
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Political Risk Ratings
  • Domestic Political Outlook
  • First Elections Ahead, But Little To Change
  • The December elections to the Federal National Council (FNC) pose minimal risk to political stability The event
  • symbolises the country's tentative steps toward political reform, and with little domestic public pressure we
  • expect change to be incremental A greater risk, however, is the potential for imported terrorist activity
  • Foreign Policy Outlook
  • Regional Issues To Dominate
  • Relations between the UAE and Saudi Arabia will remain relatively cordial, although the ongoing border dispute
  • and other relatively minor disagreements will periodically rekindle some tension Broader regional political and
  • economic interests will prevent relations deteriorating substantially on this front
  • Table: Cabinet List
• Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
  • BMI Core Scenario
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Economic Risk Ratings
  • Economic Activity
  • Powerhouse Economy Drives On
  • Economic growth will continue its impressive trajectory, although the authorities will have to keep a tight watch
  • on inflation as the construction boom spreads through the emirates
  • Table: Economic Indicators
  • Fiscal Outlook
  • Reforming The Finances
  • The authorities are promising a new budget law, putting the public finances on a more stable footing Despite
  • rising expenditure, the healthy condition of state coffers will ensure another budget surplus in 2007
  • Table: Consolidated Budget (AEDmn)
  • Balance Of Payments
  • Top Performer
  • Although imports will grow in 2007 as the economic boom continues, the surfeit of foreign exchange receipts
  • generated by oil and non-hydrocarbon exports will allow for another substantial balance of payments surplus
  • Table: Current Account
• Chapter 3: Special Report
  • BMI Sovereign Risk Ratings
  • Table: BMI Sovereign RIsk Ratings
  • Middle East and Africa
  • Table: Middle East & Africa Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Willingness to Pay
  • Table: Middle East & Africa Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Ability to Pay
• Chapter 4: Business Environment
  • BMI Core Scenario
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
  • Legal Framework
  • Labour Force
  • Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)
  • Foreign Investment Policy
  • Table: Middle East & Africa, Annual FDI Inflows
  • Table: UAE, Annual FDI Inflows
  • Foreign Trade Regime
  • Table: Top Export Destinations, US$mn
  • Tax Regime
• Chapter 5: Key Sectors
  • Key Sectors Analysis
  • Dubai Asserts Control Of Hydrocarbons
  • Dubai is retaking control of four oilfields, confirming the Maktoums' intention to retain direct control of key economic assets
  • Information Technology
  • Table: UAE IT Historical Data and Forecasts